000 AXNT20 KNHC 061803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave which was added to the 0600 UTC surface analysis is now along 26W/27W from 14N southward, based on long-duration satellite imagery loops, and SUNY Albany easterly wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 27W and 30W. Tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave was re-located earlier based on SUNY Albany diagnostic data and 700 MB wind data. Scattered moderate convection was noted in the southern portion of the wave from 06N to 08N between 42W and 47W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea is along 70W/71W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through an area of upper level subsidence with very little deep convection noted. A cluster of scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm of the coast of hispaniola between 70W and 72W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 14N16W, to 12N19W. The ITCZ begins at 12N19W and continues through 8N26W, to 11N41W, to 07N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 12N between 43W and 55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level shear axis extends from a weak circulation over Georgia southwest through the Gulf from Appalachicola, FL through 27N91W to near Tampico Mexico. The axis separates northeasterly flow aloft over the northwestern third of the Gulf from southwesterly flow which extends over Florida. At the surface, a ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Texas- Mexico border. Light southeast winds were noted over the eastern half of the Gulf, increasing to moderate to fresh within an area north of 25N and west of 90W. Fair skies were prevalent over the Gulf with thunderstorms erupting along the middle Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving beneath an upper level trough that extends from a cyclonic circulation centered over the southwest North Atlantic near 23N68W. The trough axis continues across Haiti and becomes a shear axis to near 14N78W. Patches of scattered to locally broken trade wind cumulus dotted the basin with more concentrated areas of thunderstorms developing in orographically favored areas in central America and along the north coast of Colombia and Venezuela. The monsoon trough is along 08N72W in Colombia, beyond 08N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevailed over the entire area averaging 15 to 20 knots. ...HISPANIOLA... Hispaniola was situated in an upper level col between a larger cyclonic circulation near 23N68W and a smaller feature near 15N75W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery west of the island from 13N northward between 75W and 85W. A cluster of scattered moderate convection centered within 90 nm of the north coast of the islands was sending out outflow boundaries which may interact with locally generated seabreezes to fuel scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp upper level trough passes through 32N12W, to 27N15W just to the south of the Canary Islands. A shear axis extends from 27N15W to 25N34W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 MB high pressure center near 31N32W, to 26N65W, across the northwestern Bahamas, and beyond south Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ Cobb