000 AXNT20 KNHC 061111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 711 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the surface map analysis of 06/0600 utc, along 24W/25W from 15N southward, based on long-duration satellite imagery loops, and SUNY diagnostic data. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 07N to 09N between 26W and 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. This wave was re- located based on SUNY diagnostic data and 700 MB wind data. Convective precipitation: in the ITCZ, isolated moderate from 05N to 12N between 40W and 45W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 22N65W, through the Windward Passage, to 17N70W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 20N to 22N between 70W and 71W. isolated moderate from 15N to 22N between 70W and 76W around Hispaniola Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 26N between 60W and 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ is along 06N between 26W and 42W, to 07N48W, to 09N50W and 09N53W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 25N northward between Florida and Texas/Mexico. An upper level trough is inland in Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers Mexico from 15N to 27N. A surface ridge passes through south Florida near 27N/28N, into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the lower Texas coast of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco, McAllen, Edinburg, in many parts of the area from Falfurrias to Rockport, in Victoria, in Tomball and in Conroe. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the Lake Charles metropolitan area, in Slidell, and at the West Plains Regional Airport near New Orleans. Mississippi: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Alabama: MVFR in Dothan. Florida: IFR in Crestview. MVFR in Destin. LIFR and fog in Perry. The fog has lifted in Brooksville, VFR now. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 22N65W, through the Windward Passage, to 17N70W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 20N to 22N between 70W and 71W. isolated moderate from 15N to 22N between 70W and 76W around Hispaniola Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 26N between 60W and 70W. Upper level NE wind flow is covering Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery, from 13N northward between 73W and 85W. An upper level trough extends from the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, into parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean that are adjacent to Mexico and Guatemala. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 25N between 86W and 87W off the coast of Cuba. isolated moderate from 12N to 18N between 82W and 90W including in parts of Central America. A weak upper level shear axis extends from eastern sections of Cuba toward Jamaica. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is weakening, as it moves away from Cuba, now about 150 NM to the southwest of Cuba. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 06/0000 UTC...scattered cumulonimbus clouds/MVFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/ La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: IFR with fog. Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist of NE wind flow at the start, followed by a trough with the cyclonic wind flow around the now-current 21N65W cyclonic circulation center, followed by southwest wind flow at the end of the day. South and southwest wind flow will cover Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will consist of northeast-to-east wind flow. Day two will consist of an inverted trough moving across Hispaniola at the start of the day, followed by southeast wind flow for the rest of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of southeast wind flow. Day two will consist of northeast-to-east wind flow. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in Guadeloupe, 0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.03 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 08N72W in Colombia, beyond 08N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 06N to 12N between 74W and 86W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N14W, to 26N16W just to the south of the Canary Islands. A shear axis extends from 26N16W to 26N34W. An upper level inverted trough continues from 26N34W to 21N36W, 16N39W, and to 13N43W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 MB high pressure center that is near 31N37W, to 29N49W, 27N64W, across the northwestern Bahamas, and beyond south Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ MT