000 AXNT20 KNHC 052355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 15N-04N, moving westward at 15 knots. This wave coincides with a weak inverted trough at 700 mb. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air continues to surround this wave and is inhibiting convection. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, from 21N-12N, moving westward at 20 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb is noted in model guidance in conjunction with this wave. Satellite precipitable water imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows scattered showers from 15N-21N between 64W-69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 09N20W to 08N28W. The ITCZ extends from 08N28W to 09N35W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave near 09N38W to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Isolated moderate convection is off the coast of west Africa from 05N-11N between 21W-26W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 06N-10N between 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends across the basin along 28N. 05-15 knot SE flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over western tip of Cuba, the Yucatan Channel,and northern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate convection is over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and north Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N88W enhancing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for convection to move west to the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please see above for more details. Scattered moderate to strong convection is mostly inland over north Venezuela, and north Colombia, from 05N-11N between 63W-77W. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and eastern Honduras. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Atlantic near 23N63W enhancing convection north of the Leeward Islands. Expect the tropical wave to be the dominate features over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island. Daytime heating coupled with a tropical wave will give the island continued precipitation for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the Tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated moderate convection is over the southern Bahamas. A large 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N37W producing fair weather. Expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level low north of the Leeward Islands near 23N63W to move west with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa