000 AXNT20 KNHC 051805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 06N38W to 16N38W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with a weak inverted trough at 700 mb. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air continues to surround this wave and is inhibiting convection. A tropical wave has just entered the eastern Caribbean. The wave has an axis from 12N63W to 22N62W. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb is noted in model guidance in conjunction with this wave. Satellite precipitable water imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. An upper-level trough to the W is causing scattered moderate isolated strong convection to sheared to the NE of the wave from 21N to 24N between 58W and 62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes from Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W and extends to 09N20W to 10N26W. The ITCZ reaches from 10N27W to 10N33W then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N40W to N of the coast of Surname in South America at 07N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found SW of the coast of west Africa from 03N to 10N between 18W and 26W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present NE of French Guiana from 06N to 08N between 45W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge crosses the Gulf of Mexico from NE to SW. The ridge will remain in place and maintain a fair weather regime for the next several days. The northern portion of a tropical wave is crossing the Bay of Campeche, but there is little associated convection. Winds over the western Gulf will be fresh during the next few days in response to low pressure over the central and southern plains of the United States. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean. Most of the associated convection is located over the Atlantic to the NE of Puerto Rico. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for more details. The monsoon trough extends eastward from the Pacific through Costa Rica and Panama into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present over the far southwestern Caribbean S of 11N. Satellite-derived wind data show fresh trades cover the Caribbean E of 80W, except N of the coast of Colombia, where they are fresh to strong. A strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic N of the Caribbean will maintain the winds over the central and eastern Caribbean for at least the next few days. To the W of 80W, trade winds are light to moderate. Little change is expected elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather generally continues across the island. Daytime heating will produce afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today. A tropical wave is approaching the island from the east. See the tropical waves section for more details. Most of the associated showers and thunderstorms will pass to the north, but increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected over Hispaniola during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the Tropical Atlantic in the vicinity of 38W. Please refer to the tropical wave section above for details. Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is dominated by fair weather as a result of ridging from 1027 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 30N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAM