000 AXNT20 KNHC 051115 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 715 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N to 12N between 30W and 40W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 21N62W, into the southeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N southward between 60W and 63W. An inland tropical wave is along 91W from 20N southward moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave extends from the western parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, across Guatemala, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 85W eastward. Convective precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 10N25W 09N32W. No ITCZ is apparent. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong between 53W and 59W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 10N between 17W and 26W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A northwest-to-southeast oriented upper level trough is in the northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers from 24N to 29N between the northwestern Bahamas and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. A northwest-to-southeast oriented upper level trough is moving through the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 17N inland in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 20N between 93W and 96W. A northwest-to-southeast oriented upper level trough is moving through central Mexico. A surface ridge passes through Florida near 27N/28N, just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, through the central/south central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH and KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Victoria and Angleton/Lake Jackson, and from the Houston Intercontinental Airport to Conroe. LOUISIANA: MVFR at the Slidell Airport, and at the NAS Joint Reserve Base in New Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: light rain has ended for the moment in Pascagoula. Alabama: MVFR at the Mobile Regional Airport, and at Fort Rucker. FLORIDA: IFR in Crestview, Perry, and Brooksville. MVFR in Punta Gorda. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough extends from a 21N62W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, through the northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 17N64W, to 14N66W and 10N66W near the coast of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery, covering the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward between 63W and the Windward Passage. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 15N northward between 60W and 70W. Upper level NE to E wind flow and the comparatively drier air are covering Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 18N to 19N between 72W and 73W in southern Haiti. Rainshowers are moving from the waters that are to the northeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands toward those islands. Isolated moderate convective precipitation from 20N northward between 80W and the Yucatan Peninsula, a bit to the southeast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico upper level trough. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 05/0000 UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: dust- MVFR, and few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: few cumulonimbus/VFR/NO CEILINGS. La Romana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the NE wind flow will cover the area during day one. Variable southerly wind flow, from the southeast and southwest at times, will cover the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that east-to- northeast wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that east-to- southeast wind flow will cover the area for the next 48 hours. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.28 in Guadeloupe, and 0.17 in Bermuda. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N18W to 26N25W, to 19N34W and 10N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward from 50W eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes through a 1026 MB that is near 34N27W, to a 1027 MB high pressure center that is near 30N40W, to 28N57W, across the northwestern Bahamas, and beyond Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ MT