000 AXNT20 KNHC 050604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/34W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 07N to 15N between 26W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward between 50W and 54W. An inland tropical wave is along 90W from 20N southward moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The monsoon trough is along 07N80W 09N90W 08N94W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 11N to 13N between 82W and 84W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N from 74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W to 15N20W 10N26W and 09N31W. The ITCZ starts from 07N36W to 05N45W, and to 05N52W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 06N to 10N between 50W and 57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 10N between 18W and 23W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Mexico near 24N100W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Mexico from 20N to 30N between 96W and 106W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N93W, moving through the eastern sections of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 14N to 22N between 87W and 96W, covering parts of Central America and the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH, KSPR, and KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Robstown and Rockport, and in Victoria and Palacios. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Baton Rouge. MISSISSIPPI and Alabama: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. MVFR at the St.Pete/Clearwater International Airport. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough extends from a 20N62W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, through the northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 16N64W, to 14N66W and 10N66W near the coast of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery, covering the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward between 63W and the Windward Passage. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 22N between 59W and 63W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 70W eastward. Upper level NE to E wind flow and the comparatively drier air are covering Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 18N to 19N between 72W and 73W in southern Haiti. Rainshowers are moving from the waters that are to the northeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands toward those islands. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 05/0000 UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona as of 05/0000 UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the NE wind flow will cover the area during day one. Variable southerly wind flow, from the southeast and southwest at times, will cover the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that east-to- northeast wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that east-to- southeast wind flow will cover the area for the next 48 hours. No gale-force wind speeds are forecast for the next 24 hours. Expect NE to E winds of 25 KT to 30 KT and sea heights of 8 FT to 11 FT from 11N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Expect also: NE to E winds of 20 KT to 25 KT and sea heights ranging from 8 FT to 11 FT elsewhere from 10.5N to 17N between 70W and 81W. Expect: NE to E winds 20 KT to 25 KT and sea heights to 8 FT to the north of 15N to the east of 70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.28 in Guadeloupe, and 0.17 in Bermuda. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N18W to 26N25W, to 19N34W and 10N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward from 50W eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes through a 1027 MB that is near 34N27W, to a second 1027 MB high pressure center that is near 31N40W, to 29N50W, 28N65W, across the northwestern Bahamas to 28N80W at the coast of Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the lower Texas coast of the Gulf of Mexico. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ MT