000 AXNT20 KNHC 042323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 723 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 16N32W to 07N33W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough as depicted in model guidance between 30W-40W. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air prevails in the environment of this wave inhibiting convection at this time. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 18N58W to 07N58W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with an inverted 700 mb trough as noted in model guidance and it is embedded within a surge of moisture depicted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern portion of the wave N of 14N between 55W-61W. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis from 20N88W to 11N88W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. A broad inverted trough at 700 mb is noted in model guidance entering the eastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula with scattered moderate convection along the wave's axis between 87W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 08N34W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of west Africa and its adjacent waters mainly E of 22W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm N of the ITCZ W of 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic extends across the basin along 26N. An upper-level low centered over the SE portion of the basin is supporting scattered light to moderate convection across the far E Gulf waters and NW Caribbean mainly E of 84W. A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing convection over the Yucatan Channel. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect over the next 24-48 hours for a tropical wave to move to the Bay of Campeche with convection. Also expect the convection over the SE Gulf to persist over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Central America while another one is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the section above for more details. The proximity of the monsoon trough combined with a diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms S of 13N between 78W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect for the tropical wave to enter the E Caribbean during the next 24 hours with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevail across the island at this time. Daytime heating coupled with southerly flow aloft will give the island afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the next 24-48 hours before a tropical wave moves across the island by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico is enhancing convection across the W Atlantic mainly W of 77W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N43W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA