000 AXNT20 KNHC 031031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Near gale to gale force winds are expected to develop along the coast of Colombia beginning 04/0600 UTC and persist for 9 hours until late Monday morning. These winds will be induced by the tight pressure gradient generated between a SW North Atlc surface ridge and the lower pressure over the South American continent combined with a tropical wave that will move across the area overnight into Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N26W to 15N23W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad and elongated 700 mb troughing extending from over Dakar Senegal SW to near 06N32W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 07N45W to 17N43W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ with a 1014 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N. The surface low coincides with 700 mb troughing between 42W-50W and 850 mb relative vorticity focused near the low. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between 42W-51W. Tropical wave extends from 09N75W to 19N74W moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 70W-80W on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc near 28N69W. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 69W-72W...and from 19N-23N between 73W-78W. The northwestern area of convection continues to be enhanced further by an upper level low centered over eastern Cuba near 21N78W. Additional scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is across inland portions northern Colombia and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea waters from 05N-11N between 72W-80W. Tropical wave extends from 07N84W to 16N84W moving W at 15-20 kt. The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 85W-88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-15N between 82W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 07N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N31W to 05N36W to 05N45W...and from 09N47W to 06N56W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of a line from 04N09W to 12N17W...from 05N-09N between 23W-29W...and from 03N- 09N between 46W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 32W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Overall fair conditions are expected across the Gulf basin this morning as a surface ridge axis extends from across the NW Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula to the east-central Mexico coast near Tampico. Gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin and are expected to increase slightly across the western Gulf waters on Monday and Monday night an area of low pressure develops across the central U.S. plains. Thereafter...the ridge axis is forecast to shift north to 28N by Tuesday and remain in place through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Caribbean W of 76W providing an overall stable environment this morning...however middle to upper level moisture on the western periphery of an upper level low centered near 21N78W is continuing to support lingering isolated showers and tstms across central and eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters N of 19N between 75W-81W. In addition...a tropical wave along 85W is also generating enough instability within the dry air to support scattered showers and tstms in the Gulf of Honduras region and across the SW Caribbean S of 15N between 80W-86W. Farther east...another tropical wave along 75W continues to generate scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 16N between 69W-73W. Otherwise...fresh to strong trades persist due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the basin between strong high pressure across the SW North Atlc and lower pressure across the South American continent. Note above regarding the brief period of near gale to gale force winds off the coast of Colombia on Sunday night late into Monday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...scattered showers and tstms are possible through the morning hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered W-NW over eastern Cuba near 21N78W. This environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote scattered showers and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early evening hours. In addition...a tropical wave currently along 75W will continue to enhance convection across the island through Sunday afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough axis extends from 32N71W SW to over the central Florida peninsula supporting a few isolated showers across the NW waters of the SW North Atlc region this morning in the vicinity of 29N80W. In addition...an upper level low is centered south of the troughing over eastern Cuba near 21N78W supporting scattered showers and tstms across eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters S of 24N between 72W-80W. In between these two upper level features...a ridge at the surface dominates the overall synoptic pattern with the ridge axis extending from the central Atlc near 30N60W to the southern Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is influenced by the 1032 mb high centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 40N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN