000 AXNT20 KNHC 022331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale force winds are expected to develop along the coast of Colombia from Sunday night through Monday morning. These winds will be induced by the tight pressure gradient generated between the W Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America combined with a tropical wave that will move across the area Sunday night through Monday morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 18N39W to 06N41W, moving W near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen in global guidance and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level low is also in the vicinity of the wave, which is helping inducing scattered moderate convection S of 14N between 39W-45W. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 19N70W to 09N70W, moving W at about 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level low is also in the environment of this wave enhancing convection N of 14N between 65W-73W affecting Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and their adjacent waters. A tropical wave is moving across the W Caribbean extends with axis from 18N79W to 07N80W, moving W near 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. A diffluent flow aloft prevails in the environment of this wave, which combined with the proximity of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern portion of the wave mainly S of 12N between 75W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 16N17W to 07N27W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 09N38W then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N43W to 06N55W. Aside from the activity associated with the tropical wave, isolated moderate convection prevails S of the Monsoon Trough mainly N of 10N and E of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb high centered over the SE Gulf near 24N87W. A surface trough extends across the NE Gulf and over northern Florida from 28N86W to 31N82W. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection over the Florida Peninsula which is also affecting the eastern portion of the Gulf mainly E of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect for the ridge to persist during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the northern Caribbean supported by an upper-level low centered over eastern Cuba near 19N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also observed across the southern portion of the basin S of 12N between 75W-84W due to the combination of a tropical wave, the Monsoon Trough, and an upper- level low. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the majority of the basin except W of 80W where light to gentle easterlies prevail. Expect for the waves to continue moving W with convection. Gale force winds are expected to develop across the waters N of Colombia by Sunday evening. Please refer to the section above for details. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the island at this time as an upper-level low prevails over the area and combines with a tropical wave. This activity will continue through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida. This feature combined with a diffluent flow aloft is inducing scattered moderate convection across the W Atlantic mainly W of 77W. An upper-level low is centered over E Cuba enhancing convection across the Greater Antilles and the Atlantic waters S of 22N between 65W-77W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 40N29W. The surface ridge will persist through early next week. Fresh winds between the Turks and Caicos and the coast of Hispaniola will pulse to strong each evening through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA