000 AXNT20 KNHC 021028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N39W to 14N36W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with 700 mb troughing between 35W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 35W-42W. Tropical wave extends from 05N66W to 17N64W moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 62W-70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N-21N between 61W- 67W. Tropical wave extends from 08N77W to 17N75W moving W at 15-20 kt. The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 72W-82W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-11N between 73W-82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 09N20W to 07N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N25W to 09N37W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 13W-17W...and from 04N-09N between 19W-26W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 42W- 57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery progressing eastward offshore of the eastern U.S. seaboard this morning. The troughing aloft supports overall weaker low pressure across much of the SE CONUS in support of a frontal boundary extending from the Delmarva region through the Tennessee River valley to the lower Mississippi River valley. Global model fields indicate mid-level energy remains across the central Florida peninsula and portions of the eastern Gulf waters supporting isolated showers occurring N of 26N E of 88W. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from across southern Florida and the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf near 22N97W. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin this morning and this overall pattern is expected through Monday night as the ridge axis holds along 26N/27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery indicates northerly flow aloft over much of the western and central Caribbean providing overall fair skies this morning with the exception of scattered showers and strong tstms occurring S of 11N between 73W-83W. Farther east...an upper level low is centered NW of the Windward Passage region near 21N74W. East of the trough axis extending south along 74W...moist S-SW flow aloft continues to generate middle to upper level cloudiness with embedded isolated showers possible generally N of 17N between 67W-74W...including Hispaniola. In addition...a tropical wave along 65W is providing the necessary low-level focus for widely scattered showers and tstms generally E of 67W. Fresh to strong trades are expected to persist generally between 68W-80W through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the morning hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered NW of the Windward Passage near 21N74W. This environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote scattered showers and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early evening hours. In addition...the approach of a tropical wave currently along 65W will bring increase precipitation probabilities to the island Saturday night into Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough axis is currently moving offshore of the U.S. seaboard providing cloudiness across much of the northwestern SW North Atlc waters. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally within 120 nm either side of a line from 28N80W to 32N76W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored across the central North Atlc with ridge axis extending from 31N55W to 25N80W. This surface ridge also influences much of the central and eastern Atlc as the 1034 mb high is centered NW of the Azores near 41N31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN