000 AXNT20 KNHC 020521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N37W to 12N37W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with 700 mb troughing between 32W-42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 33W-40W. Tropical wave extends from 06N65W to 18N63W moving W at 20 kt. This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 60W-67W. Isolated moderate convection from 11N-20N between 60W-66W. Tropical wave extends from 08N75W to 18N75W moving W at 20 kt. The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 70W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 72W-78W. Tropical wave extends from 06N87W to 14N87W moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-16N between 85W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 09N19W to 08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N25W to 08N37W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 20W-24W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery progressing eastward over the SE U.S. and mid-Atlc coast this evening. The troughing aloft supports overall weaker low pressure across much of the SE CONUS in support of a stationary front extending from the western Carolinas SW to the lower Mississippi River valley. Global model fields indicate mid-level energy remains across the northern Florida peninsula and portions of the eastern Gulf waters in support of a weak surface trough analyzed from 30N84W to 28N93W. Isolated showers continue to gradually dissipate N of 26N E of 90W while widely scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across portions of the central Florida peninsula. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from across southern Florida and the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf near 21N97W. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin this evening and this overall pattern is expected through Monday night as the ridge axis holds along 26N/27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery indicates northerly flow aloft over much of the western and central Caribbean providing overall fair skies this evening with the exception of isolated showers occurring across the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba within 60 nm of the coast...and stronger scattered showers and tstms S of 11N between 75W-83W. Farther east...an upper level low is centered over the Windward Passage region near 20N74W. East of trough axis extending south along 74W...moist S-SW flow aloft continues to generate middle to upper level cloudiness with embedded isolated showers possible. The addition of a tropical wave along 64W is providing the necessary low-level focus for widely scattered showers and tstms generally E of 66W. Fresh to strong trades are expected to persist generally between 68W-80W through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the overnight hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered over the Windward Passage near 20N74W. This environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough axis is currently moving over the SE U.S. coast providing cloudiness across much of the northwestern SW North Atlc waters. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally NW of a line from 26N80W to 32N70W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored across the central North Atlc with ridge axis extending from 32N55W to 26N80W. This surface ridge also influences much of the central and eastern Atlc as the 1036 mb high is centered NW of the Azores near 40N32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN