000 AXNT20 KNHC 012348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the far E Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 11N32W to 04N33W, moving W near 20 kt. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is present along the wave. A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic with axis from 14N48W to 05N50W, moving W at around 20 kt. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is S of 10N between 47W-52W. A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis from 17N61W to 06N62W, moving west near 20 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Scattered moderate convection is along the axis affecting the Leeward/Windward Islands. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis from 18N73W to 08N73W, moving west near 20 kt. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is along a surge of moisture. Despite this, no significant convection is related to the wave at this time. A tropical wave is moving across Central America and the EPAC wit axis from 19N83W to 05N83W, moving west near 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail along the wave between 76W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 05N35W to 03N51W. and continues along 4N46W to South America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 100 nm N of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A diffluent flow aloft combined with a surface trough that extends across the northern portion of the basin are enhancing convection mainly over the NE Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. To the S, a 1018 mb surface high is centered near 25N84W. Another surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N95W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate westerly flow across the northern half of the Gulf while a light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails S of 26N. Surface ridging will persist through the weekend while the surface trough will linger across the northern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The combination of the tropical wave and the monsoon trough is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across Central America and its adjacent waters S of 12N between 76W-84W. An upper-level low currently centered N of Hispaniola is supporting scattered moderate convection across Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the waves to continue moving W with convection. The high pressure over the SW Atlantic combined with lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the the Central Caribbean through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper-level low centered over the Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island. The low will shift W Saturday giving the island southerly flow aloft. This will produce fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast each evening/night through the weekend. Scatteredmoderate convection is also expected through this period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the W Atlantic mainly W of 75W. To the SE, two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low centered near 21N73W is supporting scattered moderate convection across the southern Bahamas, the Puerto Rico Trench, and the northern Caribbean waters. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 40N34W. Surface ridging will persist through weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse between the Turks and Caicos and the coast of Hispaniola each evening through this period also. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA