000 AXNT20 KNHC 011747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale force winds will be discontinued along the coast of Colombia at 01/1500 UTC. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along 25W-26W from 7N-17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a weak, low amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave moving into the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 35W-36W from 3N-12N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-8N between 32W-40W. Tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands extends along 59W- 60W south of 13N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak, low amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 12N-19N between 55W-62W. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 67W south of 17N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is along a surge of moisture that is from 13N-19N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Activity near the north portion of the wave is associated with the wave and an upper trough just to the west. See Caribbean Sea section below. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 81W south of 15N to across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west near 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Convection over the southwest Caribbean is associated with the wave and the monsoon trough. See Caribbean Sea section below. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W along 10N21W 8N31W to 4N41W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N46W to South America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 6N-(n between 14W-18W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-10N between 40W-48W and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the east CONUS to the north Gulf coast supporting a frontal boundary that remains inland over the southeast CONUS. A surface trough extends from 30N88W over the Mississippi Delta of Louisiana to a weak 1014 mb low near 28N93W then to the coast of Texas near 29N96W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N east of 88W to inland over Florida, from 27N-29N between 88W-93W, and within 45 nm of the surface trough west of 93W. An upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region covers south Mexico and the Bay of Campeche south of 23N. This westerly flow aloft combined with the easterly surface flow is generating isolated showers south of 21N between 91W-96W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south-central Florida to the coast of Mexico near Tampico. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear skies this afternoon. The 1014 mb low is expected to dissipate this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist through the weekend while the surface trough will linger across the north Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over the Yucatan will return during evening hours, then dissipate during the early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low over the Turks and Caicos extends an upper trough into the Caribbean from Puerto Rico/Mona Passage to central Cuba to near 12N77W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to the coast of Cuba between 76W-82W. This upper trough combined with the tropical wave is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N-19N between 62W-72W including Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W to across Costa Rica near 9N83W. The monsoon trough coupled with the tropical wave along 81W are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N west of 79W to inland over Panama to south Nicaragua. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies this afternoon. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move inland over Central America tonight. The east Caribbean tropical wave will continue across the basin through the weekend. The high pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the majority of the central Caribbean through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper low over the Turks and Caicos combined with the tropical wave are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic this afternoon. The upper low over the Turks and Caicos will shift west Saturday giving the island southerly flow aloft. This will produce fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast of Hispaniola each evening/night through the weekend. As the upper trough shifts west, the west Caribbean tropical wave will also shift west bringing additional moisture to the entire island. This is give Hispaniola scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the most of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are off the coast of Florida within 45/60 nm of a line from 23N79W along 27N79W to 31N78W. This activity is a convergence line between northerly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface around the periphery of the Atlantic surface ridge. An upper trough over the east CONUS extends into the northwest Atlantic north of 32N supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 31N between 74W-80W. A strong upper low is centered over the Turks and Caicos and is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 20N between 63W-71W. A shortwave upper trough is over the east-central Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N49W to 26N51W generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 28N-30N between 46W-49W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high west- northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N56W along 28N72W across south-central Florida to over the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse between the Turks and Caicos and the coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW