000 AXNT20 KNHC 011033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean Sea is generating near gale to gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and in the near coastal waters off of Colombia. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N20W to 15N26W moving W at 15 kt. Examining long-term METEOSAT satellite imagery and Hovmoller diagrams...the wave has tracked across Africa the past few days with persistent active convection. However...while energy continues moving westward...the wave exhibits a lack of convection at this time. Tropical wave extends from 05N36W to 13N40W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 34W-43W and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the Monsoon Trough region. As a result...widely scattered moderate convection is confined to 03N-08N between 33W-42W. Tropical wave extends from 03N56W to 12N54W moving W at 20 kt. This wave is likely the southern vorticity maximum that lagged slowly behind the tropical wave to the west currently along 66W. This piece of energy coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 10N55W with widely scattered moderate convection from 08N-15N between 54W-59W. Tropical wave extends from 05N66W to 16N65W moving W at 20 kt. This wave is the northern vorticity maximum that moved well west of the tropical wave currently along 55W. The more dominate feature the last few days...it coincides with 700 mb troughing over the eastern Caribbean Sea between 61W-70W. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 61W-67W. Tropical wave extends from 07N78W to 15N82W moving W at 20 kt. The wave continues moving within the southern periphery of a mid- level ridge anchored to the north with axis along 23N/24N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across northern Colombia...Panama...and Costa Rica S of 11N between 73W-87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 04N38W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N38W to 03N51W. Outside of convection associated with tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 10W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 27W-33W...and from 01N-06N between 36W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with the base dipping to 30N. Global model fields indicate mid-level shortwave energy extends from over northern Florida SW to the central Gulf waters near 25N90W. The troughing supports a stationary front extending from central Alabama to coastal Louisiana and west to 29N99W in southern Texas. Low-level moisture convergence south of the front and in the vicinity of a 1013 mb low centered in the NW Gulf near 28n94W is providing focus for isolated showers and tstms generally N of 26N. To the south...a surface ridge axis extends from across southern Florida and the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf near 22N97W. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin this morning and this overall pattern is expected through Monday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery indicates NW flow aloft over much of the western Caribbean providing overall fair skies this morning with the exception of isolated showers occurring across the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba N of 20N between 78W-83W..and stronger scattered showers and tstms S of 11N between 74W-82W. The presence of a tropical wave along 81W is enhancing this strong convection. Farther east...upper level troughing associated with an upper level low centered north of Hispaniola near 21N72W dips south over the central Caribbean providing moist southwesterly flow aloft E of 72W. While most of this moisture is in the form of middle to upper level cloudiness...the addition of a tropical wave along 66W will provide low-level focus for scattered showers and tstms the next couple of days across the basin as the wave moves W. Currently scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the NE Caribbean from 17N-19N between 61W-67W. Fresh to strong trades are expected to persist generally between 68W-80W through the weekend with near gale to possibly gale force conditions within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the morning hours across the island. Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered north of the island near 21N72W. This environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level ridge axis extends NE from an anticyclonic circulation centered over the NW Bahamas near 26N79W providing a favorable upper level diffluent environment on the northwestern periphery of the ridge. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 25N W of 78W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored across the central North Atlc with ridge axis extending from 30N60W to 24N80W. This surface ridge also influences much of the central and eastern Atlc as the 1034 mb high is centered W-NW of the Azores near 41N36W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN