000 AXNT20 KNHC 301748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale force winds are expected for the the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. High pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over north Colombia will produce the minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela for 12 hours. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 10N29W to 5N27W moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Broad tropical wave covers the central Tropical Atlantic between 37W-52W with the mean axis extending from 14N46W to 9N44W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a weak 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm of a line from 8N54W to 14N44W. The tropical wave that was approaching the lesser Antilles no longer has a surface reflection and was removed from the 30/1200 UTC surface analysis. Tropical wave in the south Caribbean extends along 73W south of 14N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N26W to 4N36W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N50W to South America near 6N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm along the coast of west Africa from 11N-15N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-10N between 15W-27W and from 1N- 5N between 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the east CONUS to the north Gulf coast with a narrow upper trough extending Louisiana to along the Texas coast supporting a cold front that remains inland over the southeast CONUS. A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W extending over southeast Louisiana near 29N90W to a weak 1012 mb low near 28N92W then to the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of a line from Cedar key, Florida along 26N88W 25N95W to Texas near 27N97W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic to across south Florida to the coast of Mexico near Tampico. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear skies this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist into the weekend while the low and surface trough linger across the northwest of north-central Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over the Yucatan will return during evening hours, then dissipate during the early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low near the Turks and Caicos extends an upper trough over east Cuba to Puerto Rico into the Caribbean to near 12N76W generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 17N-20N between 70W-82W including portions of Hispaniola. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama along 9N. The easterly trade winds are banking low clouds with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms along the coast of west Panama and Costa Rica west of 81W to the border of Nicaragua. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean through the remainder of the week. The high pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the majority of the central Caribbean through the weekend with minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper low near the Turks and Caicos is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the south portions of Hispaniola this afternoon. The upper low near the Turks and Caicos will persist through Friday night before shifting west on Saturday. This will produce fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast of Hispaniola tonight and again Friday night. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough over the east CONUS extends into the northwest Atlantic north of 32N supporting a cold front that is well north of the discussion area but is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 31N between 72W-79W. A small upper ridge is anchored just east of south Florida near 26N79W extending a ridge axis northeast to beyond 32N70W. This upper ridge is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-31N between 77W-80W. A strong upper low is centered just north of the Turks and Caicos near 22N71W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 21N-25N between 69W-73W. A shortwave upper trough is over the east-central Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 30N44W to 27N47W generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 27N- 30N between 42W-46W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high west-northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N52W along 28N70W across south Florida to over the central Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through weekend. The upper low near the Turks and Caicos will persist through Friday night producing fresh to locally strong winds between the islands and Hispaniola tonight and again Friday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW