000 AXNT20 KNHC 301035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N28W to 13N32W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 25W-34W and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the Monsoon Trough region. As a result...scattered moderate convection is confined within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N23W to 04N32W. Tropical wave extends from 06N54W to 16N58W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 52W-60W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 05N71W to 15N71W moving W at 15 kt. The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 30N60W. Scattered moderate convection is across Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia from 02N-10N between 64W-75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 09N20W to 05N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N30W to 04N35W to 10N47W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the axis between 18W- 39W...and from 09N-13N between 43W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with a broad base dipping to 30N. The west-southwesterly flow aloft and maximum diffluence south of the troughing is supporting weak surface troughing extending from the Florida panhandle to coastal Louisiana and across the NW Gulf waters to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi this morning. Given the favorable lifting dynamics aloft and surface boundary in place...widely scattered showers are occurring generally N of a line from the Florida Big Bend region near 30N84W to 26N90W to 27N95W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends across the southern Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf with generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds expected through Thursday as ridge axis remains nearly stationary. The frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridging extends over the western Caribbean W of 78W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment aloft supporting widely scattered showers and tstms generally S of 17N between 81W-89W...including inland portions of Central America. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the Turks and Caicos Islands near 22N71W supporting a few isolated showers across Hispaniola this morning. In addition...a tropical wave along 71W is producing isolated showers across the central Caribbean in the vicinity of 15N70W. The wave is expected to move west with increased precipitation probabilities during the next few days for the south-central and southwestern waters of the basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 17N between 64W- 80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the central Caribbean. Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...isolated showers continue this morning. Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered north of the island near 22N71W. This environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak frontal troughing is analyzed across the SE CONUS and portions of the far NW Atlc discussion waters providing focus for isolated showers and tstms generally W of a line from 32N73W to 27N80W. Surface ridging is expected to build west during the next 12 to 24 hours with most of the convective shower activity moving north of the area. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored on a 1035 mb high centered NW of the Azores near 41N38W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN