000 AXNT20 KNHC 291735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale force winds are expected for the the Gulf of Venezuela Thursday night. High pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over north Colombia will produce the minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N27W to 6N25W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The 700 mb trough is east of 25W to inland over Africa as seen on the global models and the wave axis precedes a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N50W to 7N48W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a high amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the southeast Caribbean extends along 64W/65W south of 14N to inland over South America moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture south of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 9N18W to east of the tropical wave near 7N25W. The ITCZ begins west of the wave near 7N28W and continues along 8N42W to South America near 5N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 24W to the coast of west Africa. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are from 3N-7N between 24W-36W and from the ITCZ to 13N between 35W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the east CONUS to the north Gulf coast supporting a cold front that is inland over the southeast CONUS. A surface trough extends from the northwest Atlantic across south Georgia then over Tallahassee, Florida into the Gulf of Mexico along 29N88W to a weak 1013 mb low near 29N92W then to the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 24N west of 86W to the coast from Alabama to Texas with some isolated thunderstorms over the Florida panhandle west of Tallahassee. A diurnal surface trough extends from 22N91W to over south Mexico near 18N94W. This surface trough is dissipating. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic to across central Florida to over the far east Gulf. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear skies this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist through the week while the low and surface trough linger across the northwest of north-central Gulf. The diurnal surface trough over the Yucatan will return during evening and dissipate during the early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low near the Turks and Caicos extends an upper trough over Hispaniola into the Caribbean to 12N78W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over Hispaniola between 69W-73W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia south of Panama generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm along the coast from Panama to Nicaragua south of 12N west of 81W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean through the remainder of the week. The high pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the majority of the central Caribbean through the remainder of the week with minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela Thursday night. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper low near the Turks and Caicos is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola this afternoon. The upper trough will persist through the remainder of the week. This will continue to generate showers across the island with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon/ evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An surface trough over the Gulf of Mexico extends along the coast of South Carolina to inland over south Georgia generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 29N between 76W-80W. An upper low is centered just north of the Turks and Caicos near 22N72W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 25N to over Hispaniola between 67W-71W and to the west from 26N to the coast of Cuba between 77W-79W. A shortwave upper trough extends through 32N63W to 25N60W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N-29N between 56W-61W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high west-northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N55W along 27N68W across central Florida to over the far east Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through the remainder of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW