000 AXNT20 KNHC 291023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N24W to 14N30W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 13N between 23W-30W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result scattered moderate convection is confined from 04N-08N between 19W-29W. Tropical wave extends from 06N44W to 17N50W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 43W-53W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 44W-46W. Tropical wave extends from 04N63W to 12N61W moving W at 15 kt. The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 28N58W. Scattered moderate convection is across Venezuela from 04N-11N between 65W-68W...and from 11N-13N between 61W-64W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N23W to 07N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N29W to 08N34W to 05N46W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of a line from 10N14W to 05N29W...from 05N-12N between 35W-41W...and from 05N-08N between 54W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Primarily northeasterly flow aloft prevails between an upper level low centered over the SW Gulf waters near 20N97W and an upper level ridge axis extending along 28N/29N from an upper level anticyclone centered near 28N82W to southern Texas near 29N98W. Upper level diffluence associated with the ridging and weak surface troughing analyzed from the Florida panhandle into a 1014 mb low centered near 29N92W to the Texas coast near 28N97W is supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 26N between 87W-97W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains relatively tranquil due to a weak ridge axis extending across the basin from a 1016 mb high near 27N83W to a 1018 mb high near 23N99W. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Wednesday night as the ridge axis remains nearly stationary. The frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean near 12N83W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment aloft to support widely scattered showers and tstms generally S of 15N between 81W-86W. Other widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring within the Gulf of Honduras region and across interior portions of Belize and Guatemala this morning. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the SE Bahamas near 23N72W. The troughing supports a few lingering isolated showers across Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters. In addition...a tropical wave along 62W is introducing isolated showers and tstms to the Windward Islands at this time with stronger convection occurring across interior portions of central Venezuela. The wave is expected to move west and increase precipitation probabilities during the next few days for the southern portion of the basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 16N between 67W-79W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean region. Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...isolated showers are continuing this morning. Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery and this environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb surface low is centered offshore of North Carolina near 34N77W providing focus for scattered showers and tstms generally NW of a line from 28N80W to 32N74W. Farther northeast...a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery near 34N65W that is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 30N between 62W-69W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored on a 1035 mb high centered W-NW of the Azores near 41N39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN