000 AXNT20 KNHC 290543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N25W to 17N25W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 10N between 20W-28W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result scattered moderate convection is confined from 04N-07N between 21W-28W. Tropical wave extends from 05N44W to 12N47W to 19N47W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 43W- 52W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result...no significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 05N63W to 18N62W moving W at 15 kt. The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 28N57W. Scattered moderate convection is across Venezuela from 04N-08N between 63W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 05N23W to 05N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N30W to 06N34W to 04N43W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 10W-16W...from 04N-08N between 17W-28W...from 04N-11N between 33W-41W...and from 05N-08N between 52W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Primarily northeasterly flow aloft prevails between an upper level low centered over the SW Gulf waters near 20N96W and an upper level ridge axis extending along 29N from an upper level anticyclone centered near 28N83W to southern Texas near 29N98W. Upper level diffluence associated with the ridging and weak surface troughing analyzed from southern Georgia to west-central Louisiana is supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 27N between 88W- 97W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains relatively tranquil due to a weak ridge axis extending across the basin along 25N/26N. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Wednesday night as the ridge axis remains nearly stationary. The frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean near 13N83W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment aloft to support scattered showers and tstms generally S of 14N between 80W-86W. Other scattered showers and tstms are to the east occurring within the Gulf of Honduras region and across interior portions of Guatemala this evening. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the SE Bahamas near 22N73W. The troughing supported earlier convection across Cuba and Hispaniola...and while this continues to dissipate...a few lingering isolated showers are occurring within the adjacent coastal waters of these two islands. In addition...a tropical wave along 62W is introducing isolated showers to the Lesser Antilles at this time with stronger convection occurring across interior portions of Venezuela. The wave is expected to move west and increase precipitation probabilities during the next few days for the basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 16N between 67W-79W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean region. Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...lingering isolated showers are continuing to gradually dissipate. Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery this evening...and this environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and tstms again Wednesday late afternoon into the early evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb surface low is centered across SE Georgia providing focus for scattered showers and tstms N of 31N W of 78W. Farther northeast...a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery near 35N67W that is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 28N between 61W-68W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high centered W-NW of the Azores near 41N38W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN