000 AXNT20 KNHC 282341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N23W to 05N23W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 20W-25W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result, no significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N46W to 05N42W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 40W- 50W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. Isolated convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave where the ITCZ is present mainly S of 06N. A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands with axis extending from 17N59W to 06N59W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 55W-60W. Scattered moderate convection prevail across the southern portion of the wave S of 12N between 59W-64W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 06N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N29W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 29W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary 1016 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N85W. To the E, a surface trough extends from the western Caribbean, across W Cuba and into the eastern Gulf from 23N83W to 26N82W. Isolated convection is observed along this trough. A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the Gulf States supporting scattered moderate convection along their coastlines which is slowly entering the northern Gulf waters mainly N of 28N between 89W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic across the basin. This overall synoptic pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from 22N84Wto 18N83W with isolated convection. To the E, an upper- level low centered N of eastern Cuba is inducing convection across the northern Caribbean waters N of 18N between 70W-80W affecting Cuba, Hispaniola and Jamaica. The proximity of a tropical wave currently along 60W is supporting isolated convection across the Lesser Antilles mainly E of 63W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except S of 14N between 70W-74W where fresh to strong winds will pulse every evening. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to enter the eastern Caribbean with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the island induced by an upper-level low currently centered N of eastern Cuba. Expect for this feature to prevail nearly stationary during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1036 mb high centered near 41N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA