000 AXNT20 KNHC 280454 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N31W to 17N38W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 25W-40W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result...no significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 04N56W to 12N53W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 52W-58W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to 08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N23W to 05N32W to 06N46W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-16N between 13W-19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 14W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Primarily easterly flow aloft prevails between an inverted upper level trough over the SW Gulf waters and an upper level ridge axis extending along 32N over the SE CONUS. Upper level diffluence associated with the ridging and weak mid-level shortwave energy noted on water vapor imagery over the lower Mississippi River valley is supporting a 1014 mb low centered across SE Louisiana and generating scattered showers and tstms N of 29N between 89W- 95W...including inland portions of southern Mississippi... Louisiana...and far SE Texas. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains relatively tranquil due to a weak ridge axis extending across the basin along 25N. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Wednesday as the ridge axis remains nearly stationary. This overall synoptic pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean near 13N82W and along with a tropical wave currently across El Salvador and Guatemala is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms generally S of 17N W of 81W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft with axis along 73W. Mostly dry air is associated with the troughing W of 73W...however a few isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the adjacent coastal waters off of Cuba this evening. E of 73W... scattered middle to upper level cloudiness is evident on satellite imagery due to moist southwesterly flow aloft...however conditions at the surface remain mostly fair. While moderate to fresh trade prevail across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 16N between 68W-80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean region. Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...mostly fair conditions prevail as earlier isolated showers and tstms have dissipated. Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery this evening...and this environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and tstms Tuesday late afternoon into the early evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb surface low is centered across the SW North Atlc centered E of the Georgia coast near 31N79W. A weak frontal trough extends SW from the low and across the northern and central Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico with no significant convection occurring at this time. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 high centered NW of the Azores near 41N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN