000 AXNT20 KNHC 271740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18N34W 13N34W 05N31W, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 03N to 08N between 30W and 35W. A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 10N southward moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 13N between 50W and 56W. A tropical wave is in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea, and inland from Honduras southward. It is moving westward 10 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 30 NM on either side of 09N80W in Panama, 11N82W, and 13N84W in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Caribbean Sea from 18N southward from 83W westward. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 07N24W 06N30W 06N42W 04N48W. Convective precipitation elsewhere: from 03N to 08N between 20W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level inverted trough is in the south central gulf of mexico. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm to the north and northeast of the inverted trough. A diurnal surface trough is in the central part of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It is typical for this trough to move from the Yucatan Peninsula during the late night/ early morning hours, and then weaken and dissipate during the late morning/early afternoon hours. No significant deep convective precipitation accompanies the trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, from 23N northward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is in southwestern Georgia. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...Earlier rainshowers immediately to the south of Lake Pontchartrain have ended for the moment. MISSISSIPPI and ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...Rain and thunder from the NAS Whiting Field to Pensacola ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 24N59W cyclonic circulation center, to Puerto Rico and 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. A second middle level to upper level trough passes through 23N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Haiti and the Windward Passage, to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 61W and 66W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.37 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.20 in Guadeloupe, 0.14 in Merida in Mexico, 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.04 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.04 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.02 in Trinidad. ...HISPANIOLA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the area, with the current middle level to upper level trough. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santo Domingo: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/ NO CEILINGS. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current trough that cuts across Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean will remain across the area for the first 24 hours. A second trough will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that Hispaniola will be in the middle of an eastern Caribbean Sea east- to-west oriented ridge and approaching cyclonic wind flow with a trough to the west and northwest. This will be the scenario for the first 24 hours. Southwesterly wind flow from the ridge will cover Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be in the Mona Passage, sending southeast wind flow and sometimes anticyclonic wind flow, across the area for day one. The same scenario is forecast for day two also. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N67W to 27N68W to 23N72W, into the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes through 32N72W to 31N75W, to a 1017 MB low pressure center that is near 31N79W. A cold front continues from the low pressure center, cutting into the northeaster corner of Florida and the southeastern corner of Georgia. A surface trough extends from the 1017 MB low pressure center, to 28N79W, across southern Florida to 25N82W just to the north of the Florida Keys. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between 63W and 72W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. A middle level to upper level trough extends from a 24N59W cyclonic circulation center, beyond Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 22N53W 19N54W 17N55W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N to 27N between 49W and 60W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 23N northward from 70W eastward. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ mt