000 AXNT20 KNHC 262333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 733 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 15N29W to 06N30W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Saharan dust prevails along this wave inhibiting convection development. A tropical wave is moving over the SW Caribbean with axis from 15N76W into the EPAC near 04N78W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at 700 mb and a moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is related to this wave as strong deep-layer wind shear prevails in the area. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 06N30W where the ITCZ begins and extends to 07N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 37W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough that extends from 28N88W to 23N90W continues to generate scattered showers from 23N-27N between 88W-92W. To the E, a 1021 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N86W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle variable winds covering the basin. The surface ridge and fair weather will persist through the middle of the week across the basin except for the SW portion, where a weak surface heat trough will develop every evening with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low centered over Central America is supporting scattered moderate convection across the area affecting also the SW Caribbean waters S of 17N between 79W-88W. To the E, a tropical wave extends from the southern Caribbean, over Panama, then into the EPAC. Please refer to the section above for details. Another upper-level low is centered NE of Puerto Rico extending its trough over the eastern portion of the island from 18N66W to 18N82W. This trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect for fresh to strong winds to pulse across the southern waters from 11.5N-15N between 70W-78W every afternoon/evening during the next few days. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low centered NE of Puerto Rico extends its trough SW S of Hispaniola, which combined with shallow moisture in the trade wind flow support scattered showers over the island. The low is expected to move NE within the next 24 hours. Daytime heating and low-level moisture will continue to generate convection across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends across the whole basin, anchored by a 1037 mb high centered N of the Azores near 43N30W. A surface trough extends from 21N51W to 18N52W with isolated convection. A tropical wave is moving over the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect for the surface ridge to persist through the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA