000 AXNT20 KNHC 260540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23W/24W from 6N to over the Cape Verde Islands near 16N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 72W/73W south of 16N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W along 7N25W to 7N32W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N44W to South America near 8N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 7N-12N east of 20W to the coast of west Africa. Clusters of isolated moderate convection dot the area within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over the south Mexico near 20N97W extending a ridge axis north over the north Gulf coast near the Louisiana/Texas border. Difflunce aloft between this upper ridge and an upper trough over the central Mexico is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm along the coast of Mexico south of 25N west of 95W. A shortwave upper ridge extends from over Alabama across the Florida peninsula into the west Atlantic while a second shortwave upper ridge extends from the southeast Gulf near 23N86W into the west Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf near 25N85W to inland over the Yucatan near 21N89W to Guatemala near 16N91W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the surface trough. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms that developed inland over Cuba and the Florida peninsula have moved into the Gulf waters where they are beginning to dissipate. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a 1018 mb high near 28N85W, then continues to the northeast Texas coast. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear skies tonight. Surface ridge will persist through the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shortwave upper ridge extends from the southeast Gulf near 23N86W into the west Caribbean to near 15N80W. An upper low/trough over the west-central Atlantic extends a trough axis across the Mona Passage into the Caribbean to 15N72W then west to over Nicaragua/Honduras near 14N85W across the Gulf of Honduras to the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. An upper ridge anchored over the west Tropical Atlantic covers the east Caribbean east of 65W. This upper ridge is advecting moisture across the the far east Caribbean with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 16N east of 72W to over the Lesser Antilles. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms that developed inland over Cuba have moved into the Caribbean waters where they are beginning to dissipate. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama near 9N79W to Costa Rica near 10N83W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from Nicaragua near 15N83W to Colombia near 12N73W. Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean through Sunday night, then over Central America early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean through early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the west portion of the island tonight west of 70W. The upper trough will move east of the area early Monday giving the island westerly flow aloft. The easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating will continue to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across the island through the the beginning of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough extends through a series of upper lows from the northeast Atlantic near 33N31W to a low near 31N37W, 28N57W, and 20N67W then continues as a trough through the Mona Passage into the Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the west-central Atlantic extending from 30N61W to 22N57W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N-28N between 54W and the surface trough. A second weak surface trough extends from 21N49W to 16N49W with isolated showers within 90 nm east of the surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N56W along 28N74W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through the middle of next week. A weak front will meander just to the north of the discussion area of the northwest waters tonight through Sunday, then sink south into the waters late Sunday through Monday night where it will dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW