000 AXNT20 KNHC 260003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 23W from 07N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that in part inhibits convection in the northern region of the wave. In the southern wave environment, moderate moisture, low values of deep layer wind shear and a diffluent environment aloft support scattered showers from 04N- 10N E of 29W. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near 72W S of 15N to inland Colombia and Venezuela, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at 700 mb and a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear in the vicinity of the wave limits in part the convection to isolated showers within 90 nm off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela between 68W and 75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 07N23W to 07N32W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 07N32W and then continues along 07N48W to 06N57W. For convection information see the tropical waves section. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of a surface trough continues to generate scattered showers and isolated tstms within 90 nm off the Mexico eastern coast from Tampico to Veracruz. In the SE Gulf, scatterometer data continues to show a weak surface trough from 26N83W to 21N87W with isolated showers and tstms within 60 nm either side of its axis. Otherwise, a surface ridge prevails in the NE region of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high pres center near 28N85W. Gentle to moderate E-NE flow is E of 90W while E-SE winds of the same magnitude dominate westward. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture across the NW Caribbean and a favorable unstable environment aloft continue to support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms along southern Cuba, the Yucatan Channel and offshore waters of E Honduras. In the SW Caribbean, the E Pacific monsoon trough along with instability provided by a tropical wave moving across Colombia and the south-central Caribbean support scattered to isolated showers and tstms S of 13N. At the upper levels, an elongated low centered NE the Mona Passage and SW flow to the E generate a diffluent environment that along with shallow moisture in the E Caribbean support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms E of 70W, including the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a tropical wave is moving across the south-central basin. See waves section above for details. Fresh to strong trades continue in the central basin generated by a strong gradient between low pres in the S-SW Caribbean and high pres to the N-NE. Near-gale force winds are possible along the coast of Colombia and adjacent waters. These winds will continue beyond the next two days. ...HISPANIOLA... An elongated low at the upper levels centered NE the Mona Passage favors lifting of shallow moist air across Hispaniola to support isolated showers and tstms. Global models guidance indicate that shower activity will continue through Mon, increasing in the afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are NE of the Leeward and Virgin Islands being supported by shallow moisture in the region and an area of diffluent flow at the upper levels. Broad high pressure prevails elsewhere across the basin N of 16N being anchored by a 1037 mb high N-NW of the Azores near 43N32W. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface trough from 29N59W to 25N54W with possible isolated showers within 60 nm either side of its axis. Another surface trough is along 20N49W to 16N49W. No showers noted nearby this trough. A strong pressure gradient evident on earlier scatterometer data offshore of NW Africa and in the vicinity of the Canary Islands is supporting fresh to strong N-NE winds generally N of 23N E of 26W. For tropical waves information, see section above. Little change is expected across the basin within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS