000 AXNT20 KNHC 251650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N20W to 12N22w moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 15W-27W and an E to W stretched 850 mb relative vorticity maximum along 09N/10N in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 18W-23W. Tropical wave extends from 04N69W to 13N68W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is noted on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored NE of Puerto Rico near 19N63W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-14N between 64W-71W. This convection is likely enhanced due to an upper level trough axis extending over the Caribbean Sea from 15N70W to 13N80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 07N20W to 07N32W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N32W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 11W-20W...and from 06N-09N between 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery centered over the SW Gulf waters near 21N95W with axis extending northward along 93W to over the Arklatex region. W of the upper level ridge axis...moisture is drawn north on S-SW flow aloft. The presence of a surface trough extending across the far SW Gulf from 19N95W to 23N98W is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms W of a line from 29N96W to 19N92W. E of the upper level ridge axis... relatively dry and stable conditions prevail aloft...further supporting a 1020 mb high centered near 28N88W. An upper level trough remains NE of the basin over the SE CONUS seaboard... however weak frontal troughing extends across Florida...the SE Gulf waters and portions of the Yucatan peninsula supporting two surface troughs...one analyzed across northern Florida...and the other analyzed from 24N85W to 19N88W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the SE Gulf S of 27N between 81W-88W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Tuesday as the ridge axis remains anchored along 28N/29N. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W and extends an axis S-SW to 15N70W then W-SW to 13N79W. North and west of this axis...water vapor imagery indicates dry and stable conditions aloft. One exception is an area of moisture on the eastern periphery of an inverted upper level trough over the NW Caribbean between 83W-87W. Isolated showers and tstms are noted on satellite imagery N of 16N between 80W-85W. Otherwise...to the east and south of the upper level trough axis...southwesterly winds aloft prevail generally E of 70W. This area of lift along with the presence of a tropical wave along 68W across the ABC Islands is generating scattered showers and tstms E of a line from the US/UK Virgin Islands near 18N65W to 12N72W. South of the upper level trough axis over western portions of the basin...scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 13N between 72W-85W... including inland portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. In addition...the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough along 09N/10N is enhancing the ongoing convection this afternoon. Finally... trades remain mostly moderate to fresh with the exception of fresh to occasionally strong trades between 68W-80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the region. ...HISPANIOLA... Clear skies prevail across the island this afternoon due to dry northerly flow aloft on the western periphery of an upper level low centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W. Most precipitation associated with the upper level low is occurring across the eastern Caribbean. Overall stability is expected to prevail this afternoon and overnight into Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 27N57W that extends troughing SW to another upper level low centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W. The northern upper level feature supports a surface trough analyzed from 25N53W to 30N58W with isolated showers occurring within 150 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge axis extending from 32N61W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula. The ridging is expected to hold stationary through Sunday morning as a weak frontal boundary moves off the SE CONUS and across the NW waters then weakens through Sunday night late. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high centered N-NW of the Azores near 43N32W. A strengthened pressure gradient is evident on earlier scatterometer data offshore of NW Africa and in the vicinity of the Canary Islands generating fresh to strong N-NE winds generally N of 23N E of 22W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN