000 AXNT20 KNHC 241055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 57W/58W from 12N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 7N-10N between 52W-57W. Tropical wave over the south Caribbean extends along 67W/68W south of 13N to inland over South America moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 12N-14N between 62W-67W. Tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula extends from 22N91W through a weak 1014 mb low near 19N92W continuing to southwest Guatemala near 15N92W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 20N- 22N between 91W-94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N21W to 7N33W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N44W to South America near 5N52W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-11N between 11W- 22W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are from 5N-9N between 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cutoff upper low is over north Mexico near 25N101W covering the Gulf west of 94W. A second smaller cutoff upper low is over the northeast of Gulf near 26N84W covering the area north of 24N east of 88W. A large upper ridge is anchored over the Yucatan peninsula near 21N89W covering the remainder of the Gulf and into the west Caribbean. These upper features are enhancing the activity associated with the low/tropical wave and are generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 24N between 84W-95W. Composite radar indicate isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the southeast Gulf south of 26N east of 84W and the northwest Gulf north of 23N west of 92W. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a 1019 mb high near 28N84W, then continues to southeast Texas. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear skies and tranquil conditions this morning. Surface ridge will persist through the weekend. The low/tropical wave will move across the southwest Gulf today and into Mexico by Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge over the the Yucatan peninsula covers the Caribbean west of 82W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the northwest Caribbean west of 84W. An upper trough over the west-central Atlantic extends an upper trough axis across Puerto Rico/Mona Passage into the Caribbean to near 13N78W and covering the remainder of the Caribbean. An area of difflunce aloft is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over the Greater Antilles between 75W-83W including Jamaica. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica along 9N/10N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 14N west of 80W to inland over Panama and to the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean and South America through the weekend while a second tropical wave enters the southeast Caribbean later today. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across the island this morning. The upper trough over the east Caribbean coupled with daytime heating will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms across the island through the weekend especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge is anchored over the north Bahama Islands near 25N78W with a ridge axis extending northeast to beyond Bermuda. Lingering moisture is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 25N to the coast of Cuba west of 77W through the Straits of Florida. A cutoff upper low over the west- central Atlantic is centered near 27N54W with a trough axis extending southwest to across Puerto Rico/Mona Passage into the Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the central Atlantic extending from 31N52W along 25N48W to 20N40W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high west-northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N56W along 28N71W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through Sunday when a weak front will move into the northwest waters. 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