000 AXNT20 KNHC 240545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 57W/58W from 12N to inland over South America moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave over the south Caribbean extends along 67W south of 13N to inland over South America moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula extends from 23N88W through a weak 1013 mb low near 18N90W continuing to south Guatemala near 14N90W moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N west of 84W in the west Caribbean and east of 93W in the Bay of Campeche. This area of activity is enhanced by upper level features. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N26W to 7N35W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N45W to 6N57W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-10N between the coast of Africa and 20W, from 5N-8N between 30W-36W, and from 6N-10N between 50W- 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cutoff upper low is over northeast Mexico near 24N100W covering the Gulf west of 93W. A second smaller cutoff upper low is over the northeast of Gulf near 27N85W covering the area north of 25N east of 90W. A large upper ridge is anchored over the Yucatan peninsula near 21N89W covering the remainder of the Gulf and into the west Caribbean. These upper features are enhancing the activity associated with the low/tropical wave over the Yucatan. A seabreeze surface trough is over Florida generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms north of 24N east of 83W to inland over Florida. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1019 mb high near 27N85W, then continues to east Texas. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear skies and tranquil conditions tonight. Surface ridge will persist through the weekend. The low/tropical wave will move into the southwest Gulf waters early Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge over the the Yucatan peninsula covers the Caribbean west of 76W. An upper trough over the west-central Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean. An area of difflunce aloft is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over the Greater Antilles between Puerto Rico and east Cuba including Hispaniola, the Windward and Mona Passages. The monsoon trough extends over Panama just south of the Caribbean Sea generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 10N west of 80W to inland over Panama to south Nicaragua. Tropical wave will move across South America through the weekend and a second tropical wave will enter the southeast Caribbean Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... An area of difflunce aloft is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms across the island tonight. The upper trough over the east Caribbean will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms across the island through the weekend especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge is anchored over the north Bahama Islands near 25N78W with a ridge axis extending northeast to beyond Bermuda. Lingering moisture is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Bahamas to Cuba between 76W-80W. A cutoff upper low over the west-central Atlantic is centered near 27N54W with a trough axis extending west-southwest to across Puerto Rico into the east Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the central Atlantic extending from 30N51W along 25N46W to 20N42W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high west-northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N58W along 29N72W across northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW