000 AXNT20 KNHC 231110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 11N51W to 3N48W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-10N between 48W-57W. Tropical wave moving over South America extends along 60W/61W south of 10N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 87W/88W from 21N to over Central America moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N west of 83W to inland over Central America and the Yucatan peninsula. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 18N16W along 10N20W to 7N31W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N40W to 3N46W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N between the coast of Africa and the monsoon trough and from 2N-5N between 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over the west Atlantic near 29N77W with a ridge axis extending west over the southeast CONUS near the Georgia/Florida border to central Texas. A cutoff upper low is over the southwest Gulf near 21N97W covering the Gulf south of 28N west of 90W. The upper low coupled with a diurnal surface trough that extends from 22N90W to south Mexico near 18N92W are generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 23N between 90W-94W. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1021 mb high near Tallahassee, then continues to central Texas. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear skies and tranquil conditions this morning. Surface ridge will persist through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge covers the Caribbean west of 70W and is anchored just west of the Cayman Islands near 19N83W. Difflunce aloft between this upper ridge and the upper low over the southwest Gulf of Mexico is enhancing the activity associated with the tropical wave. An upper trough over the central Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean. A second area of difflunce aloft is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over east Cuba and Hispaniola between 69W-76W including the Windward Passage. Tropical wave will move inland over the Yucatan peninsula and out of the Caribbean basin later today. Another tropical wave will move across South America and Trinidad today, then continuing across the remainder of South America through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds will decrease in coverage today, then increase slightly late tonight into Friday. This pattern of increasing/decreasing in coverage will continue through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... An area of difflunce aloft is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms across the island tonight including the Windward Passage. Lingering moisture and daytime heating could still produce isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge is anchored over the west Atlantic near 29N77W with a ridge axis extending west over the southeast CONUS near the Georgia/Florida border and covers the west Atlantic north 24N west of 69W. A remnant surface trough extends along 79W/80W from 23N-29N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 25N to the coast of Cuba between 77W-80W. A cutoff upper low over the central Atlantic is centered near 26N54W covering the area from 12N-32N between 44W-65W. A second remnant surface trough is in the east Atlantic extending from 30N47W along 26N41W to 24N32W. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 65W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high about 550 nm west of the Azores with a narrow surface ridge axis extending along 30N west of 65W over the southeast CONUS. The west Atlantic surface trough will move west across Florida today. The west Atlantic surface ridge will persist through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW