000 AXNT20 KNHC 222326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 726 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N46W to 10N45W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within a poleward surge of moisture as seen in the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery between 42W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 41W-48W. Tropical wave extends from 04N56W to 11N56W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is noted on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 17N53W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N- 11N between 52W-60W. Tropical wave extends from 10N85W to 19N85W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 80W-90W and remains beneath the influence of an upper level anticyclone anchored over the NW Caribbean Sea near 17N82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-23N between 79W-91W...including portions of Central America...the Yucatan peninsula...and western Cuba. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to 07N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N29W to 05N36W to 03N42W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 13W-16W...and from 07N-09N between 20W- 25W. Outside of convection associated with tropical waves... widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 34W- 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Easterly upper level flow prevails over the basin this evening between an upper level anticyclone centered over northeast Louisiana near 33N92W and an upper level low centered over the SW Gulf near 20N95W. The upper level low supports a weak surface trough analyzed from 23N96W to southern Mexico near 18N93W and a few isolated showers and tstms occurring in the vicinity of 22N95W. On the easterly periphery of the low...middle to upper level diffluence is maximized generating widely scattered showers and tstms S of 24N between 81W-90W...including the adjacent waters of western Cuba and much of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Otherwise...the upper level anticyclone supports a 1022 mb high centered in the NE Gulf waters near 29N84W with axis extending along 29N/30N to the SE Texas coast. With the ridge remaining anchored across the NE Gulf through Sunday...gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to persist. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary focus for the basin this evening is a tropical wave extending along 85W in the NW Caribbean and across Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring W of 79W and is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall across Central America and the Yucatan peninsula through Friday as the tropical wave moves W-NW. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of relatively dry northerly flow aloft E of 77W. At the surface... fresh to strong trades continue with only isolated showers and tstms noted in the vicinity of the Mona Passage and portions of Hispaniola this evening. Little change is expected for the eastern Caribbean the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Low-level moisture and daytime heating are generating isolated showers and tstms this evening across the island. This moisture stretches E-SE to south of Puerto Rico with improving conditions noted E of 65W. Given peak daytime heating and instability... similar convective activity is expected on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough axis extends from 32N67W SW to over the NW Bahamas near 26N78W. While the frontal boundary associated with the trough dissipated...a remnant surface trough remains analyzed from 23N79W to 29N76W. Low-level moisture convergence east of the surface trough and middle to upper level diffluence east of the trough axis is generating a large area of isolated showers from 23N-32N between 58W-76W. Most of this area lies south of a ridge axis extending along 30N from 55W west to a 1022 mb high centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence of this ridging as well with mainly moderate to fresh trades prevailing. Finally...a broad middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery N of 24N E of 35W. The troughing supports a weakening frontal boundary extending from 32N26W to 27N30W to 27N38W to 31N44W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN