000 AXNT20 KNHC 211752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 39W from 03N-11N moving west around 15 kt during the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Animated water vapor imagery suggests weak upper-level convergence is limiting the associated coverage of convection to isolated moderate from 06N to 10N between 39W and 44W. Tropical wave over the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 50W from 03N-10N moving west around 15 kt during the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 52W and 62W. Isolated moderate convection is found from 03N to 09N between 46W and 57W. Tropical wave over the central Caribbean extends from NW of Colombia near 11N77W to just S of Jamaica near 17N77W moving west around 20 kt during the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a large area of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is currently situated beneath an area of divergent upper-level winds to the east of an upper-level trough over the western Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring over the Caribbean between Jamaica and Colombia from 10N to 17N between 74W and 79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N19W to 06N23W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 04N32W to east of the first tropical wave near 05N37W, resumes west of the first wave near 05N40W to east of the second tropical wave near 05N48W, then resumes west of the second wave near 06N51W to South America near 06N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present W of Sierra Leone in Africa from 06N to 08N between 15W and 19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of Danielle have dissipated over the mountains of southern Mexico. Some leftover showers and thunderstorms remain over the far southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to Coatzalcoalcos. Weak surface troughing is producing isolated convection just N of the Straits of Yucatan from 22N to 24N. Otherwise...broad ridging extending southwestward from the Florida Big Bend is maintaining fair weather over the remainder of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends southeastward from the Yucatan Peninsula over the western Caribbean. An upper-level ridge presides over the Caribbean east of 80W. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is interacting with divergent upper-level winds east of the trough to produce scattered moderate isolated strong convection mainly between Jamaica and Colombia from 10N to 17N between 74W and 79W. Please see the tropical waves section for more details on the tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the monsoon trough covers the far southwestern Caribbean near the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Convection associated with the tropical wave will shift westward over the western Caribbean during the next couple of days. Convection associated with the monsoon trough will linger over the far SW Caribbean during the same time frame. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave moving westward away from Jamaica is still producing isolated convection over the Dominican Republic. Shower coverage will be decreasing during the next few days as the tropical wave moves away. Showers and thunderstorms could still fire up on Wednesday afternoon due to daytime heating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stalled frontal boundary is serving as the focus for showers and thunderstorms over extreme southern Florida and the Bahama Islands. Scattered moderate convection is present along the front and southward to just north of Cuba and Hispaniola. The front will weaken and retreat slowly toward the northwest as it evolves into a surface trough during the next couple of days. Shower coverage associated with the front and trough will decrease accordingly during this time frame. Otherwise...the weather over the remainder of the Atlc remains relatively quiet. A high pressure ridge extends west- southwestward from just W of the Iberian Peninsula through a 1032 mb surface high centered SW of the Azores near 39N42W to N of Puerto Rico near 25N66W. The high is maintaining fair weather and moderate to fresh trades generally from 10N to 25N between 20W and 65W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ cam