000 AXNT20 KNHC 211136 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Danielle was downgraded to a remnant low at 21/0900 UTC. The remnants of Danielle are centered near 20.6N 99.3W at 21/0900 UTC or about 110 nm west-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico moving west-southwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are southwest of a line running from northeast Mexico near 24N98W to the Yucatan near 19N91W. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Danielle. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 38W from 4N-10N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 45 nm of 9N between 36W-40W. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 48W/49W from 3N-10N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 45 nm of a line from 7N42W to 9N49W. Tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from Haiti near 19N73W to the coast of Colombia near 10N75W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is north of a line 15N69W to 19N78W to over the Greater Antilles. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N16W along 10N19W to 6N23W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N31W to east of the first tropical wave near 5N37W, resumes west of the wave near 6N40W to east of the next tropical wave near 4N47W, then resumes west of the wave near 4N51W to South America near 6N56W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-8N between 12W-17W and from 5N-8N between 47W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of Danielle continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over Mexico and over the southwest Gulf. See special features above. An upper ridge is anchored over north Texas with a ridge axis extending east to the coast of North Carolina. An upper trough over the west Atlantic extends across Florida south of Lake Okeechobee into the southeast Gulf to the Yucatan peninsula near 21N90W. The upper trough is supporting a stationary front that extends across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Lingering moisture over the remainder of the Straits are generating isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 24N east of 82W. A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N84.5W to 24N83W with isolated showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm west of the trough axis south of 27N. The upper features are giving most of the Gulf north flow aloft except in the southeast Gulf. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high over south Alabama and by a 1022 mb high in the west Atlantic. Surface ridge will persist through tonight, then shift south to along 28N Wednesday and Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough covers the west Caribbean west of 71W while an upper ridge anchored just east of Trinidad covers the remainder of the Caribbean. This is creating a diffluent environment over the north-central Caribbean and enhancing the activity associated with the tropical wave. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the area north of 14N between 68W- 80W. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean along 10N west of 77W to across Costa Rica generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N to over Panama and Costa Rica between Colombia and Nicaragua. Tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean through today, then across the west Caribbean tonight and Wednesday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage across the east and central Caribbean through Wednesday and gradually shift westward across the basin, then persisting there through the end of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms remain across the island this morning thanks to upper level divergence and a tropical wave over Haiti. Lingering moisture with showers and thunderstorms will persist through early Wednesday when the upper level divergence and tropical wave will be west of the island. Wednesday afternoon could still see showers and thunderstorms due to daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough is over the west Atlantic extending through 32N73W across Florida south of Lake Okeechobee into the east Gulf of Mexico supporting a stationary front across Bermuda along 29N67W to 26N73W, then across the north Bahama islands to 25N80W. A surface trough is south of the front extending from 26N70W to 22N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of the front to a line from the Mona Passage near 18N67W to 27N65W including the Bahama Islands and the Turks and Caicos. A surface ridge covers the remainder of the west Atlantic west of front with a 1022 mb high near 32N75W. The remainder of the Atlantic east of the front is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 34N48W. West Atlantic front will gradually dissipate through Thursday night as a surface ridge becomes established along 30N to northeast Florida. The surface trough northeast of Bahamas will move west across the remainder of the Bahama Islands through Wednesday night while weakening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW