000 AXNT20 KNHC 210611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0205 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Danielle was downgraded to Tropical Depression at 21/0300 UTC. T.D. Danielle is centered near 21.2N 97.8W at 21/0300 UTC or about 26 nm west-northwest of Tuxpan, Mexico moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over Mexico and within 75 nm along the coast between 94W-97W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms cover the area southwest of line from northeast Mexico near 24N98W to the Yucatan near 20N91W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 37W from 4N-10N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 48W from 3N-10N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 72W south of 19N to inland over South America moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N to over Hispaniola between 68W-75W and north of 18N between 75W-77W including the Windward Passage and east Cuba. tonight ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 9N18W to 6N23W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N31W to east of the first tropical wave near 5N35W, resumes west of the wave near 6N38W to east of the next tropical wave near 4N27W, then resumes west of the wave near 4N49W to South America near 4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm along the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone south of 8N west of 10W and within 60 nm of line from 7N48W to South America near 6N54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern tonight is Tropical Depression Danielle that is moving inland over Central Mexico. See Special Features above. An upper ridge is anchored over north Texas with a ridge axis extending east to the coast of North Carolina. An upper trough over the west Atlantic extends across central Florida into the southeast Gulf to 24N86W. The upper trough is supporting a stationary front that extends across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Lingering moisture over the remainder of the Straits are gendering isolated showers south of 25N east of 85W. A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N84W to Key West, Florida with isolated showers within 75 nm west of the trough axis. The upper features are giving most of the Gulf north flow aloft except westerly flow through the Straits of Florida. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf anchored in the west Atlantic. Danielle is expected to become a remnant low later today. Surface ridge will persist through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough covers the west Caribbean west of 71W while an upper ridge anchored near Trinidad covers the remainder of the Caribbean. This is creating a diffluent environment over the north-central Caribbean and enhancing the activity associated with the tropical wave. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the area north of 14N between 66W-80W. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean along 10N from 78W to across Costa Rica generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N to over Panama and Costa Rica between Colombia and Nicaragua. Tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean through Tuesday, then across the northwest Caribbean Tuesday night and Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage across the east and central Caribbean through Wednesday and gradually shift westward across the basin then persisting there through the end of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the island tonight thanks to upper level difflunce and a tropical wave along 72W. Lingering moisture with showers and thunderstorms will persist through Wednesday when the upper level difflunce and tropical wave move west of the island. Wednesday afternoon could still see showers and thunderstorms due to daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough is over the northwest Atlantic extending along 32N72W across central Florida into the east Gulf of Mexico supporting a cold front that extends through 32N64W to 31N65W where it becomes stationary along 26N72W across the north Bahama islands to 25N80W. A surface trough precedes the front extending from 27N69W to 23N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the front to a line from Puerto Rico near 18N66W to 32N61W including the Bahama Islands and the Turks and Caicos. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high near 33N46W. West Atlantic front will transition to a surface trough tonight, then drift westward while weakening. A surface ridge will set up along 31N tonight through Tuesday night, then slide southward to 28N/29N Wednesday through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW