000 AXNT20 KNHC 201813 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Danielle was located near 20.7N 96.3W at 1500 UTC and is moving west at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico S of 24N and west of 93W. The center of Danielle is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today. Danielle is expected to weaken after landfall. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the tropical central Atlantic with axis near 33W from 04N-12N, moving W at around 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave still coincides with weak 700 mb troughing between 25W and 35W according to the GFS model. Saharan dry air and dust are impinging the northern part of the wave and strong deep layer wind shear are limiting convection to isolated coverage. A tropical wave is over the tropical central Atlantic with axis near 44W from 02N-10N, moving W around 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 38W and 51W according to the GFS model. Saharan dry air and dust are impinging the northern portion of the wave. In the southern wave environment, weak deep layer wind shear, moderate moisture and divergent winds at the upper levels support scattered convection between 03N and 07N between 43W and 48W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W from 10N-19N, moving W around 20 kt during the past 24 hours. This wave is generating showers and tstms over the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico, the eastern Dominican Republic and the adjacent waters. The wave is associated with abundant moisture as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. The wave lies beneath upper-level divergence. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave is located from 13N to 19N between 64W and 72W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 75W from 11N-19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is situated beneath an upper-level trough which is producing strong upper- level convergence and wind shear which is limiting the coverage of convection to isolated. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 08N22W. The ITCZ axis continues from 08N22W to 03N32W to 05N41W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N45W to 05N51W. Besides convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present along the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone in west Africa from 07N to 10N between 13W to 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main concern in the basin is T.S. Danielle, which is currently centered over the western Bay of Campeche. See the special features section above for more details. Otherwise... surface ridging extends southwestward over the Gulf from the Florida Big Bend is maintaining quieter weather over the central Gulf. Weak surface troughing is producing scattered moderate convection over the northeastern Gulf between the Mississippi delta to western Cuba. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, one with axis near 66W and the other in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 76W. The easternmost wave is generating showers and tstms over the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters. The westernmost wave is situated beneath an upper-level trough which is suppressing convection. See the tropical waves section above for additional details. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough continues to support scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of 11N over Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and the adjacent coastal waters. Strong pres gradient between ridging NE of the basin and lower pres in the central, eastern, and SW Caribbean continues to generate fresh to strong east to northeast trades from 11N to 17N between 65W and 87W. The strongest winds are occurring in the climatologically favored area along the coast of Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave with an axis near 66W is interacting with an upper-level trough extending southward from the Windward Passage into the central Caribbean to produce showers and thunderstorms over eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. See the tropical waves section for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface low is centered near the northern edge of the discussion area at 30N67W. An attendant frontal boundary curves southwestward from the low to E of Key West Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is present along and up to 180 nm SE of the front. The frontal boundary has begun to weaken and will eventually become a trough tonight. Other than convection associated with tropical waves, the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of surface ridging extending southwestward from a 1032 mb high centered over the mid Atlc at 34N44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ cam