000 AXNT20 KNHC 191804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Surface low pressure is centered over the central Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. This system is producing widespread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula and Gulf of Mexico S of 24N and W of 88W. The low is moving west to west-northwestward around 10 mph and is forecast to reach the Veracruz coast of Mexico on Monday. Upper-level winds remain only marginally conducive for development. However, there is still a high chance for a tropical depression to form from this system during the next day or so. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS header TWOAT or WMO header ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E tropical Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands. The axis of the wave is near 25W from 01N to 10N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with minimal 700 mb troughing between 20W and 27W according to the GFS model. Upper-level winds above this system show little in the way of convergence or divergence. Only isolated deep convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is over the E tropical Atlantic. The axis of the wave is near 35W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 25W and 37W according to the GFS model. Divergent upper- level winds in the vicinity of the wave are generating scattered moderate convection from 01N to 07N between 34W to 39W. A tropical wave is over the W tropical Atlantic. The axis of the wave is near 58W from 07N to 15N, moving W at 20 kt during the past 24 hours. Divergent upper-level winds in the vicinity of the wave are generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the Windward Islands from 10N to 17N between 57W and 63W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. The axis of the wave is near 68W from 11N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 70W and 80W according to the GFS model. The wave is interacting with a mid to upper-level trough over the central Caribbean. This interaction is producing scattered moderate convection over and S of Puerto Rico from 14N to 19N between 64W and 68W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 07N23W. The ITCZ axis begins near 05N27W and continues along 02N40W to 02N49W. Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves, no significant convection is associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure system is centered over the central Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. The low is producing widespread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula and Gulf of Mexico S of 24N and W of 88W. Please see the special features section for details. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds are occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Showers will continue in the Bay of Campeche during the next couple of days associated with the area of low pressure discussed in special features. A weakening stationary boundary stretches from the mouth of the Mississippi to southern Florida. This boundary is expected to dissipate by Monday evening. Otherwise...weak ridging is present between the low over the Bay of Campeche and the stationary front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface low pressure centered over the central Bay of Campeche is producing cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula eastward to the far NW Caribbean along the coast of Belize. A tropical wave continues to move over the eastern Caribbean waters. The wave is generating showers over and S of Puerto Rico. A second tropical wave is bringing abundant moisture to the Windward Islands. See the tropical waves section for more details on both of these waves. A strong pres gradient continues to generate strong to near gale NE to E winds N of Colombia from 11N to 14N between 72W and 76W. Fresh to strong E winds are present over the Gulf of Honduras S of 18N. ...HISPANIOLA... Shower coverage still remains low over the island. However, shower coverage will increase tonight and Monday as a tropical wave approaching from the east interacts with a mid to upper level trough lingering over the island. Chances for scattered to heavy showers will increase accordingly during this time frame. See the tropical waves section for more details on the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough extends southward over the far W Atlc with a base near 26N75W. Associated surface low pressure is centered near 29N68W. A cold front extends southwestward from the low to the Florida coast near 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is present along and up to 200 nm SE of the front N of 27N. The front will stall over the northern Bahamas tonight, then weaken on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, surface ridging and fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ cam