000 AXNT20 KNHC 191028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A large low pressure system, centered over the central Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan peninsula and the far NW Caribbean. The low is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph and is forecast to reach the coast of eastern Mexico on Monday. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, there is still a high chance for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E tropical Atlantic with axis near 25W from 02N-12N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 20W and 30W according to the GFS model. Low to moderate moisture is associated with this wave as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment at the upper levels may enhance isolated showers in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is in the W tropical Atlantic with axis near 55W from 05N-14N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W and 60W according to the GFS model. Moderate moisture from the surface to 850 mb is associated with this wave as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Scattered showers are from 10N-13N between 51W and 56W. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean with axis near 64W from 09N-17N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. Moderate moisture from the surface to 850 mb is associated with this wave as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with diffluence in the upper levels support scattered showers in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are likely in the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ axis begins near 05N29W and continues along 02N40W to 02N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 20W-23W and from 02N-08N between 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A large low pressure system, centered over the central Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan peninsula and the far NW Caribbean. There is a high chance for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so. Please see the special features section for details. A weak ridge prevails in the SE basin, which provides with gentle variable wind. A trough aloft in the far W Atlc with base near 26N continues to support a cold front across southern Florida to 26N82W where it stalls while weakening along 28N85W to 29N89W. This front support isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the boundary. Moderate easterlies are N of the dissipating stationary front. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds are S of 24N between 91W and 93W with associated seas to 10 ft. Showers will continue in the Bay of Campeche the next couple of days associated with the area of low pressure discussed in special features. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large low pressure system, centered over the central Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula and channel as well as the far NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a tropical wave continues to move over far eastern Caribbean waters generating showers for the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands. See the tropical waves section for further details. A second tropical wave bringing abundant moisture will enter the E basin late tonight. A strong pres gradient in the S-SW basin continue to support strong to near gale NE to E winds from 11N-13N between 74W and 76W with seas to 11 ft and fresh to strong NE to E winds from 11N-16N between 69W and 78W with seas to 10 ft. Fresh to strong E winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras S of 18N. ...HISPANIOLA... Showers have ceased across the island, however are expected to develop once again this afternoon and evening. Chances of scattered to heavy showers will increase Mon as a tropical wave approaches from the E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough aloft in the far W Atlc with base near 26N continues to support a cold front extending from 30N66W to 27N73W to 26N80W. Scattered showers are happening S of 30N between 63W and 80W. Surface ridging and fair weather prevails across the remainder basin. The front is expected to stall across the northern Bahamas tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS