000 AXNT20 KNHC 190605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past several hours, but it is forecast to move west- northwestward to westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation from this system. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E tropical Atlantic with axis near 25W from 02N-11N, moving W at 10 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 20W and 30W according to the GFS model. Low to moderate moisture is associated with this wave as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment at the upper levels may enhance isolated showers in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is in the W tropical Atlantic with axis near 55W from 06N-13N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W and 60W according to the GFS model. Moderate moisture from the surface to 850 mb is associated with this wave as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean with axis near 62W from 09N-17N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. Moderate moisture from the surface to 850 mb is associated with this wave as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with diffluence in the upper levels support scattered showers in the Leeward Islands and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are observed in the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ axis begins near 05N28W and continues along 02N40W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 18W-22W and from 02N-06N between 28W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation from this system. Please see the special features section for details. A weak ridge prevails in the SE basin, which provides with gentle variable wind. A trough aloft in the far W Atlc with base near 28N continues to support a cold front across central Florida to 27N83W where it stalls while weakening along 28N86W to 28N90W. This front support scattered showers within 60 nm off the Florida big bend. Fair weather is elsewhere. Moderate easterlies are N of the dissipating stationary front. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds are S of 24N between 90W and 94W with associated seas of 9 ft. Showers will continue in the Bay of Campeche the next couple of days associated with the area of low pressure discussed in special features. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters in the NW Caribbean Sea and Yucatan channel. An upper level low located NE of Hispaniola and associated trough extending S across the Caribbean along with shallow moisture in the vicinity of the Island support scattered showers across southern Haiti and adjacent waters. Otherwise, a tropical wave continues to move over far eastern Caribbean waters generating showers for the Lesser Antilles. See the tropical waves section for further details. A second tropical wave bringing abundant moisture will enter the E basin late Sunday. A strong pres gradient in the S-SW basin continue to support strong to near gale NE to E winds from 11N-13N between 74W and 77W with seas to 11 ft and fresh to strong E winds from 11N-16N between 68W and 80W with seas to 10 ft. Fresh to strong E winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras S of 20N. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low located NE of Hispaniola and associated trough extending S across the Caribbean along with shallow moisture in the vicinity of the Island support scattered showers across southern Haiti and adjacent waters. Showers are expected once again on Sunday night, increasing into Mon as a tropical wave approaches from the E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough aloft in the far W Atlc with base near 28N continues to support a cold front from 30N68W to 27N77W to 27N80W. Scattered heavy showers are from 23N-29N W of 76W. Isolated showers are elsewhere N of 25N between 60W and 76W. Surface ridging and fair weather prevails across the remainder basin. The cold front is expected to be E of the Bahamas by late Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS