000 AXNT20 KNHC 180602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the West tropical Atlc with axis near 45W from 05N-14N, moving W at 20 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 40W and 50W according to the GFS model and low values of deep layer wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is within a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb that along with an upper level diffluent environment support scattered showers from 08N-12N between 41W-48W and 02N-05N between 40W-43W. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is in the West tropical Atlc with axis near 57W from 06N-15N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W and 63W according to the GFS model. CIRA LPW imagery indicate the wave is within a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb, however it is in a region of strong deep layer wind shear that in part inhibits convection at the time. A tropical wave is off the western Yucatan Peninsula with axis near 91W, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a very sharp 700 mb trough, a middle level low and divergence at the upper levels. The former described environment along with abundant moisture in the region support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms inland the Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize and isolated showers within 90 nm off the Peninsula coast. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 07N20W to 06N28W where the ITCZ axis begins and then continues to 07N36W to 02N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave near 45W, a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-07N between 22W-26W possibly associated with a tropical wave. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main feature across the basin continue to be a tropical wave that is producing disorganized thunderstorms and cloudiness over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern Guatemala, and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could form over the southern Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days, emerging over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Refer to the tropical waves section for more details. The remainder basin is dominated by surface ridging extending across the basin from the SW N Atlc waters. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the NE Gulf N of 28N E of 90W associated with a squall line N of the area. Scattered showers are in the Yucatan Channel and northern Cuba coastal waters. Otherwise, gentle variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to moderate flow is to the W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula continue to support scattered to isolated showers across the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel. A middle level low over the Yucatan Peninsula and a ridge centered over Cuba generates diffluence in the region to support scattered showers along Cuba and adjacent waters. An upper level low and associated trough cover the central and eastern basin, however water vapor SSMI TPW and CIRA LPW imagery show mainly dry air in this region, which is favoring fair weather. Otherwise, a tight gradient between low pres in the SW basin and high pres in the N-NE Caribbean prevails, thus supporting NE to E strong to near gale-force winds from 11N-13N between 74W-77W. Fresh to strong winds are S of 19N W of 84.5W, including the Gulf of Honduras. A new tropical wave will move into the eastern region by late Sat with possible showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level troughing and an upper level low are over the the Island, however Water Vapor and CIRA LPW imagery show mainly dry air in this region, which is favoring fair weather. Similar conditions are expected during the remainder weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Middle to upper level troughing continues along the far W Atlc waters with base reaching near the central Bahamas. Moderate moisture in this region along with lifting provided by the upper trough support scattered showers and isolated tstms W of 70W, except for the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters. Otherwise, besides the tropical waves discussed above, broad surface high pressure anchored near the Azores dominates elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS