000 AXNT20 KNHC 172333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 733 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis from 14N42W to 06N45W, moving W at 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing noted in global model fields between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate convection prevails south of 11N between 42W-45W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N55W to 06N56W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W-60W and is embedded in the leading edge of a surge of deep moisture. No significant convection is observed within this wave at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis extending from 22N89W to 13N91W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and the NW Caribbean Sea between 85W-92W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 14N-23N between 85W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 06N29W, where the ITCZ axis begins and extends to 08N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N46W to 08N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough east of 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave that is generating scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters. Please refer to the section above for more details. A surface ridge axis extends from the western Atlantic, across south Florida to a 1017 mb high centered near 20N93W. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin. A diurnal surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche extending from 22N94W to 19N94W. This trough is moving westward with no deep convection. Over the next 24 hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Florida peninsula affecting the eastern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern Gulf as the tropical wave moves westward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing convection over the far west Caribbean mainly west of 85W. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela supports fresh to strong trades and seas to 12 feet south of 15N between 69W and 78W. Moderate trades cover the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours, except for an increase in showers over the Leeward Islands over the weekend as a tropical wave approaches the area from the east. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair conditions prevail over the island at this time. Similar conditions are forecast across the area through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough over the southeastern United States supports clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic north of 24N and west of 70W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Two tropical waves are over the tropical central Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours, expect convection to continue across the western Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA