000 AXNT20 KNHC 170954 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 554 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between a central Atlc ridge and lower pressure across northern South America is generating near gale to gale force E-NE winds within close proximity to the coast of Colombia through Friday afternoon. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N40W to 12N39W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing noted in global model fields between 35W-45W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 36W-42W. Tropical wave extends from 06N53W to 12N51W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 48W-55W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 49W-54W. Tropical wave extends from 12N88W to 20N86W moving W-NW at 10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and the NW Caribbean Sea between 85W-90W. Isolated moderate convection is from 16N-22N between 84W-89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N28W to 07N40W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 12W-25W...and from 04N-10N between 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis extending from northern Florida near 29N81W SW to over the SW Gulf near 19N94W and an upper level ridge axis extends over the western Gulf waters from an upper level anticyclone anchored over NW Mexico near 27N106W. Between these features primarily northerly winds aloft prevail that promote overall stability for the basin this morning. Otherwise...a surface ridge extending from across Cuba to the Texas/Louisiana coasts is maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...an area of low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the Carolinas Saturday draping a frontal boundary along 30N E of 90W that pushes southward then eastward through Sunday night across much of the Florida peninsula. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected early next week as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean near 14N82W providing an overall diffluent environment generally W of 78W. Beneath this upper level feature...a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W that continues to support low-level moisture convergence and widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 09N-22N W of 80W...including inland portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Farther east...an upper level low is anchored over Hispaniola near 18N69W...however water vapor imagery indicates a fairly dry and stable environment across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fair skies prevail as a result with generally moderate to strong trades expected through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies are fair with tranquil conditions expected through the day on Friday. An upper level low is centered over the island...however is accompanied by dry air and a relatively stable environment. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted over the SW North Atlc region this evening that supports increased cloudiness and a few isolated showers in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas. However... the prevailing surface feature is a weak ridge axis extending from the central Atlc near 23N54W westward to across Cuba and into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is expected to slowly erode away through Saturday night as an area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of the Carolinas and bring strong NE winds north and west of the low center through Sunday night late. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across the Azores near 38N26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN