000 AXNT20 KNHC 170555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between a central Atlc ridge and lower pressure across northern South America are expected to generate near gale to gale force E-NE winds within close proximity to the coast of Colombia this evening into Friday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N36W to 10N35W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing noted in global model fields between 31W-43W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 34W-39W. Tropical wave extends from 05N52W to 11N51W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 43W-52W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 11N87W to 19N85W moving W-NW at 10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and the NW Caribbean Sea between 83W-90W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 09N-20N between 80W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 08N20W to 08N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N26W to 08N36W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-10N between 11W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 39W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis extending from northern Florida near 28N82W SW to over the SW Gulf near 19N94W and an upper level ridge axis extends over the western Gulf waters from an upper level anticyclone anchored over NW Mexico near 26N106W. Between these features primarily north- northeasterly winds aloft prevail that promote overall stability for the basin this evening. Otherwise...a surface ridge extending from the SW North Atlc near 24N80W to a 1026 mb high centered near 27N91W is maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...an area of low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the Carolinas Saturday draping a frontal boundary along 30N E of 90W that pushes southward then eastward through Sunday night across much of the Florida peninsula. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected early next week as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean near 15N82W providing an overall diffluent environment generally W of 78W. Beneath this upper level feature...a tropical wave is analyzed along 86W that continues to support low-level moisture convergence and widely scattered showers and tstms from 09N-21N W of 79W...including inland portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula. Farther east...an upper level low is anchored over Hispaniola near 19N70W...however water vapor imagery indicates a fairly dry and stable environment across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fair skies prevail with generally moderate to strong trades expected through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies are fair with tranquil conditions expected through the day on Friday. An upper level low is centered over the island however is accompanied by dry air and a relative stable environment. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted over the SW North Atlc region this evening that supports increased cloudiness and a few isolated showers N of 23N W of 74W. However...the prevailing surface feature is a weak ridge axis extending from the central Atlc near 23N55W to across the Florida Straits and into the NW Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is expected to slowly erode away through Saturday night as an area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of the Carolinas and bring strong north and west of the low center through Sunday night late. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered south of the Azores near 37N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN