000 AXNT20 KNHC 162347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high and lower pressures over South America will generate gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean waters mainly north of Colombia from 11N-13N between 74W-77W. These conditions will begin tonight and will continue through the next 12 hours. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 10N32W to 02N33W, moving west near 15-20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 33W-36W. A tropical wave is in the west Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 11N51W to 05N51W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the global models and a broad area of high moisture surrounds this feature as seen on SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed in thevicinity of this wave from 04N-09N between 50W-53W. A tropical wave has been repositioned in the western Caribbean after analyzing scatterometer data, surface observations and satellite imagery. The new axis extends from 18N84W to 11N85W, moving at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. A well defined trough at 700 mb is depicted by global models, and abundant moisture accompanies this wave. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed along this wave from 11N-19N between 81W-88W affecting the SW Caribbean waters and portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 07N32W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 07N35W to 08N50W then resumes near 09N52W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic to the west reaching the Gulf waters. An upper-level trough is developing across the southeastern portion of the basin supporting scattered moderate convection over the Yucatan and Florida Peninsulas as well as their adjacent waters south of 25N and east of 90W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... An active tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and Central America. Please refer to the section above for more details. The proximity of this wave and a diffluent flow aloft are supporting isolated convection over eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. To the east, an upper-level low centered over eastern Hispaniola is generating isolated showers across western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect in 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. Gale force winds will develop north of Colombia tonight. Please see the Special Feature section for details. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the area at this time. An upper- level low is centered over Dominican Republic near 19N69W. With this, isolated convection is expected to move over the island during the next 24 hours as this feature drifts west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the western Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the east, a broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 23N61W and a 1028 mb high near 39N26W. Two tropical waves were analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect during the next 24 hours for the waves to continue moving west with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA