000 AXNT20 KNHC 160949 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 549 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N30W to 11N30W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb trough noted in global model fields between 27W-36W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 07N. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N- 07N between 30W-35W. Tropical wave extends from 06N48W to 12N47W moving W at 20 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 43W-52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 45W-51W. Tropical wave extends from 04N76W to 11N76W moving W at 20 kt. The wave remains across inland Colombia on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 22N71W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 11N86W to 18N86W moving W-NW at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and the NW Caribbean Sea between 84W-89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N-21N between 78W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 09N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N21W to 06N30W to 07N38W to 06N48W to 07N53W to 06N57W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 13W- 15W...and from 06N-10N between 33W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 51W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered over the SE Gulf near 26N83W and an upper level ridge axis extends from over southern Texas near 27N99W NE to over coastal Louisiana. Between these features primarily northeasterly winds aloft prevail that promote overall stability for the basin this morning. Otherwise...a surface ridge extending from the SW North Atlc region along 26N/27N to the Texas coast is maintaining gentle to fresh anticyclonic winds. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...an area of low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the Carolinas Saturday draping a frontal boundary along 30N E of 90W that pushes southward then eastward through Sunday night across much of the Florida peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across the NW Caribbean between an upper level low anchored over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N83W and an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N77W. The additional presence of a tropical wave along 86W is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms across the Caribbean waters from 10N-21N between 78W-86W. While the tropical wave is expected to track W-NW during the next couple of days...increased probability of precipitation is expected for much of northern Central America and the Yucatan peninsula region through the upcoming weekend. Otherwise...the eastern Caribbean is under mostly stable and dry conditions aloft with generally moderate to fresh trades E of 70W. The strongest trades due to a strengthened pressure gradient as ridging builds across the central Atlc will persist between 70W-82W at fresh to strong levels. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies this morning are fair with tranquil conditions expected through the day on Thursday. An upper level low is centered NE of the island near 20N67W that is expected to develop further and then retrograde over the region Thursday and Friday. Increased probability of convective precipitation is expected with the favorable lifting dynamics in place through the remainder of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico this morning that is providing diffluent flow aloft over the Bahamas and adjacent coastal waters. As a result...isolate showers and tstms are occurring S of 28N W of 75W. Otherwise...a surface ridge remains anchored across the SW North Atlc focused on a 1021 mb high centered near 23N60W. The only exception to the ridging across the discussion area is along 30N between 50W-64W as a dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 32N52W to 30N63W with isolated showers possible N of 29N within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 37N30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN