000 AXNT20 KNHC 151732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W from 2N-10N moving west 20 TO 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 1N-6N between 26W-32W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 12N43W to 5N47W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the global models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave is inland over South America along 70W moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection in the Caribbean waters. Tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends along 82W/83W south of 15N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 16N west of 82W to inland over Central America. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 17N16W along 16N18W through a 1016 mb low near 5N20W to 4N23W. The ITCZ begins near 4N29W and continues to the central Atlantic tropical wave near 6N44W then resumes west of the wave near 6N48W to South America near 6N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90/120 nm of line from 9N46W to 7N56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge extends across Mexico and along the coast of Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley covering the Gulf west of 90W. A cutoff upper low in the east Gulf is centered over the Florida Keys covering the remainder of the Gulf. This is providing difflunce aloft to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 29N to over the north Gulf coast between 85W-90W and over the southeast Gulf from 22N-26N between 83W- 87W. This is leaving the remainder of the Gulf under clear skies this afternoon. A surface ridge axis extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida through a 1018 mb high near 26N84W to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. The surface ridge will persist through Friday night. A weak cold front will move into the northeast Gulf Saturday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper low over the southeast Gulf of Mexico covers the northwest Caribbean north of 17N west of 79W. An upper ridge is anchored over the Caribbean near 14N75W covering the remainder of the Caribbean. The upper low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to over Cuba between 78W- 85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N- 15N between 75W-79W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with clear skies this afternoon. The tropical wave will move inland over Central America this afternoon through tonight. Strong east to southeast trade winds are across the central Caribbean and will persist through the weekend. Fresh to strong east winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Thursday night through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies are rather clear across the island this afternoon. Moisture will be limited across the island through tonight, then increase over the Dominican Republic and spread west by Thursday night. This will limit showers/thunderstorms to primarily isolated afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low over the southeast Gulf of Mexico covers the far west Atlantic west of 78W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Bahama islands north of 24N. An upper high is over the remainder of the west Atlantic located near 28N78W. A broad upper trough is over the north- central Atlantic north of 30N supporting a cold front that enters the region near 32N55W and extends along 29N61W to 30N67W then stationary to 31N73W. This front is embedded within an area of limited moisture. Thus, no showers are associated with this front. A narrow upper trough extends from the broader upper trough near 30N58W along 24N64W to 23N71W. This is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of line from 29N52W along 26N58W to 26N65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge that is anchored by a 1029 mb high about 300 nm southwest of the Azores and extending a ridge axis through 32N38W along 24N55W to a 1022 mb high near 24N66W then across south Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. The west Atlantic cold front will stall and lift north of the area today. Surface ridge across south Florida will shift a little south on Thursday then weaken slightly Saturday. A second cold front will sink slowly south into the far west Atlantic late Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW