000 AXNT20 KNHC 151045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N19W to 12N20W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low noted in global model fields in the vicinity of 06N24W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 07N. A weak 1016 mb surface low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis and was noted in as earlier scatterometer pass around 14/2214 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave from 02N-08N between 24W- 30W. Tropical wave extends from 06N45W to 13N41W moving W at 20 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 39W-47W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 42W-47W. Tropical wave extends from 02N68W to 10N68W moving W at 20 kt. The wave remains across inland western Venezuela and eastern Colombia on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 21N62W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 67W-72W. Tropical wave extends from 06N81W to 15N81W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean Sea between 78W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N- 16N between 75W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 07N19W to 05N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N30W to 06N45W to 06N53W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 46W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Northerly flow prevails over the basin this morning between a middle to upper level low centered over the Florida Straits near 25N81W and an upper level ridge axis extending from over northern Mexico near 25N104W to over the lower Mississippi River valley near 33N91W. The overall stability supports a 1017 mb high centered across the eastern Gulf with generally gentle to fresh anticyclonic flow occurring at this time. The ridging is expected to persist across the basin through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the central Caribbean near 16N75W with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable conditions across the eastern Caribbean E of 72W. However W of 72W...moist southwesterly flow aloft between the upper level ridge and an upper level trough axis over the NW Caribbean is generating isolated scattered showers and tstms from 18N-23N between 74W-85W. In addition the presence of a tropical wave along 81W is focusing convection across the SW Caribbean waters S of 17N between 73W-85W...including portions of northern Colombia...Nicaragua...and Honduras. Otherwise...trade winds remain strongest between 64W-78W in the range of fresh to strong due to a strengthened pressure gradient while the remainder of the waters are within moderate to fresh levels. The existing gradient will gradually slide westward through Thursday as ridging builds from the central Atlc to the SW North Atlc region north of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently lingering cloudiness from earlier precipitation is across the island this morning. An upper level trough axis is expected to move south from the SW North Atlc region through Wednesday night with a low developing aloft and then retrograding Thursday and Friday. Increased probability of convective precipitation is expected with the favorable lifting dynamics in place through the remainder of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from 32N56W SW to 24N73W supporting an area of increased cloudiness and isolated showers and tstms from 26N-29N between 55W-64W. Near the western extent of the troughing...an upper level low is centered over the Florida Straits near 25N81W providing widely scattered showers and isolated tstms across Cuba and the SW North Atlc waters S of 26N between 72W-80W. West of the trough axis however...a dry and stable airmass prevails anchored on an upper level anticyclone centered near 28N75W. One exception is a weak cold front analyzed from 32N58W to 30N63W that becomes stationary to 30N73W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of 70W. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 23N60W and a 1028 mb high centered near 35N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN