000 AXNT20 KNHC 141042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N14W to 10N16W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low noted in global model fields in the vicinity of 04N16W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity offshore of the African coast near 06N15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 13W-25W. Tropical wave extends from 05N40W to 12N35W moving W at 20 kt. The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 33W-41W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 01N57W to 08N58W moving W at 20 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and its position is based on long- duration IR satellite imagery extrapolation and very subtle 700 mb global model indicated troughing on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 21N59W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 59W-62W. Tropical wave extends from 05N73W to 15N73W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is located on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge anchored over the central Atlc in the vicinity of 21N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 72W-75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 06N17W to 05N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N29W to 07N34W to 05N52W. No significant deep convection is occurring outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves listed above. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Northerly flow prevails over the basin this morning between troughing over the SW North Atlc and an upper level ridge axis extending from over northern Mexico near 27N102W to over north Texas near 34N96W. The overall stability supports a 1016 mb high centered across the central Gulf near 25N87W with generally light to moderate anticyclonic flow occurring at this time which is expected through Tuesday. Thereafter the ridging will slide eastward and southerly return flow across the western Gulf will increase to moderate to fresh breeze levels through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the central Caribbean near 16N77W with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable conditions aloft generally S of 18N. Upper level troughing is noted to the north with axis extending from over a portion of the SW North Atlc near 25N70W W-SW to over Cuba and is providing increased moisture and cloudiness across the Greater Antilles this morning. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm S of Cuba and across portions of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage region. Otherwise...scattered showers and tstms are noted across the SW Caribbean S of 13N as a result of the close proximity to the monsoon trough axis analyzed along 10N. Trade winds remain strongest between 64W-77W in the range of fresh to strong due to a strengthened pressure gradient while the remainder of the waters are within moderate to fresh levels. The existing gradient will gradually slide westward through Thursday as ridging builds from the central Atlc to the SW North Atlc region north of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers are occurring across the island due to an upper level trough axis extending from 25N70W W-SW to over Cuba. The upper level troughing will linger through Tuesday night into early Wednesday when the weather is expected to improve and chances of precipitation become less. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from 32N61W SW to over the central Bahamas and Cuba supporting an area of increased cloudiness and scattered showers and isolated tstms from 19N-26N between 62W-79W. West of the trough axis however...a dry and stable airmass prevails with the exception of a weak cold front analyzed from 32N65W to 30N75W then stationary to 32N79W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm SE of the front. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 26N50W and a 1028 mb high centered near 35N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN