000 AXNT20 KNHC 131802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern tropical Atlc with axis near 16W from 06N-16N, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show an abundant moderate to high moist environment from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the wave that along with divergence aloft support scattered heavy showers and tstms from 03N-11N E of 17W. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis near 32W from 03N-13N, moving W at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show mainly a dry environment from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the wave that is limiting the convection to isolated showers within 60 nm either side of its axis. A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis near 46W, moving W at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show mainly a dry environment from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the wave. No convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 68W, moving W at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb in the vicinity of the wave. However, strong deep layer wind shear in this region of the basin hinders the convection at the time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 06N21W to 06N30W. The ITCZ begins near 07N34W to 05N44W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N48W and continues to 06N57W. Beside the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are from 04N-08N W of 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface high pressure continues to dominate across the Gulf waters being anchored by a center of 1018 mb near 23N86W. This feature provides the entire basin with gentle variable wind. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are in the northern basin N of 26N between 85W and 95W associated with a boundary outflow N of the area. No major changes are expected the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 68W and supporting showers and tstms mainly across western Puerto Rico. For further information see the waves section above. A diffluent environment aloft prevails over the Great Bahama Bank, Cuba and portions of Hispaniola, which along with shallow moisture support scattered showers and isolated tstms along Cuba and southern adjacent waters to 18N. Similar convection also continues within 60 nm off the coast of Costa Rica and northern Panama being supported by the EPAC monsoon trough. High pressure over the eastern basin and low pressure associated with the wave and a broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean tightens the gradient of pressure to support fresh to strong winds in the South-central waters S of 15N between 65W and 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to isolated showers prevails across the island being supported by a diffluent environment aloft over the Great Bahama Bank, Cuba and portions of Hispaniola. Moisture N of the area associated with the remnants of a former front and moisture associated with a tropical wave currently near 68W will continue to support showers in the Island through Tue morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Heavy showers and tstms are occurring between the eastern edge of an upper trough with base near 24N and the eastern periphery of a ridge that cover great portions of the Caribbean. The diffluent environment generated by these upper level features along with shallow moisture in the vicinity of a surface trough extending from 29N61W to 26N70W to 22N77W support the aforementioned convection. East of the surface trough a dissipating stationary front continues to weaken along 30N49W to 29N60W. Scattered to isolated showers are N of 28N between 54W and 60W. The Azores high dominates the remainder non-tropical Atlc, which is being anchored by a 1030 mb high center near 35N27W. Showers associated with the surface trough will continue in the SW Atlc through early Wed morning. No major changes expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS