000 AXNT20 KNHC 131048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa and eastern Atlantic with axis from 15N15W to 07N16W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an area of low-level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave's axis from 10N-14N. A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 12N29W to 02N30W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moist environment as noted by SSMI composite TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb. Isolated showers are within 150 nm to the east of the wave's axis. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis from 08N44W to 00N45W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist environment. Isolated showers are within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly across the northern portion of the wave. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 17N65W to 08N65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. A moist environment is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery around this wave. Scattered showers are over the southern portion of the wave affecting Venezuela. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 19N16W to 09N28W then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N31W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 04N41W. Beside the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf near 27N88W. With this, a light to gentle anticyclonic surface flow prevails across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft across the Ark-La-Tex region is supporting an area of moderate convection that is moving south approaching the northern Gulf waters. To the southwest, a surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N93W with isolated convection. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please see the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft and the proximity of a surface trough currently located over the Bahamas, are supporting isolated convection across the northwest Caribbean affecting portions of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. An increase in tropical moisture will continue across the northwest Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated convection is observed across the island induced by upper-level diffluence. Similar activity will continue during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near 28N75W. South of this feature, a surface trough extends across the Bahamas from 25N80W to 26N69W. A stationary front extends from that point to 32N47W. Isolated convection is observed in the vicinity of these boundaries affecting the waters west of 48W. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 35N26W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please see the section above for details. Expect for the surface high to dissipate in the western Atlantic. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA