000 AXNT20 KNHC 130537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis from 18N14W to 07N15W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an area of low-level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave's axis from 10N- 14N between 11W-14W. A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 12N28W to 02N28W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moist environment as noted by SSMI composite TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb. Scattered showers are within 180 nm mainly east of the wave's axis. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis from 08N42W to 00N44W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist environment. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly across the northern portion of the wave. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 18N44W to 07N65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. A moist environment is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered showers are over the southern portion of the wave affecting Venezuela. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 03N43W then resumes west of a tropical wave from 02N45W to 01N50W. Beside the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf near 28N89W. With this, a light to gentle anticyclonic surface flow prevails across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft across the Ark-La-Tex region is supporting an area of moderate convection that is moving south approaching the northern Gulf waters. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the Yucatan peninsula and slightly moving west entering the Bay of Campeche with convection. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please see the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft and the proximity of a surface trough currently located over the Bahamas, are supporting isolated convection across the northwest Caribbean affecting portions of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. An increase in tropical moisture will continue across the northwest Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated convection is observed across the island induced by upper-level diffluence. Similar activity will continue during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near 28N74W. South of this feature, a surface trough extends across the Bahamas from 24N77W to 24N68W. A stationary front extends from that point to 32N48W. Isolated convection is observed in the vicinity of these boundaries affecting the waters west of 62W. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 36N26W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please see the section above for details. Expect for the surface high to dissipate in the western Atlantic. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA