000 AXNT20 KNHC 122359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis along 14W south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an area of low level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 14W-16W. A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis near 27W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a large moist environment as noted by SSMI composite TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb level. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis near 42W from 01N to 09N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist environment. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 63W from 06N to 17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 62W-66W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 09N18W to 09N27W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 04N43W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Beside the convection associated with the tropical waves. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-08N between 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N87W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the NE Gulf. 10-15 kt SE surface flow is over the remainder of the Gulf. A surface trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N90W to 18N90W. In the upper levels, a short-wave trough over the NW Gulf and a ridge anchored over east-central Mexico is producing a diffluent environment over the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-33N between 88W-97W. Similar convection is 14N-20N between 90W-100W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over N Florida north of 27N. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to move to the central Gulf. Also expect convection to remain over the northern Gulf due to upper level diffluence. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over central and eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over south Mexico near 16N94W enhancing convection. Further east, an upper level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 21N85W. Elsewhere, strong subsidence is over the central Caribbean from 11N-17N between 64W-83W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with convection. Also expect an increase of tropical moisture over Cuba and Hispaniola over the next 24 hours due to upper level diffluence, and a surface trough over the Bahamas. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered moderate convection is over the higher elevations of Hispaniola. Expect more convection over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 29N74W. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N50W to 26N60W to 25N67W. A surface trough continues from 25N67W to the Bahamas at 23N74W and 25N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the front and trough. A 1028 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 35N27W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western Atlantic north of 25N between 65W-80W with a diffluent area north of the Leeward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA